16 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Bielefeld
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 Energie Cottbus.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Arminia Bielefeld, 14% draw, 13% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.37, 7.14 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arminia Bielefeld at 73% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arminia Bielefeld99%Draw1%Energie Cottbus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Grodowskiassist: H. Koudossou
26'
27'
Henry Rorig
⚽J. Grodowski
37'
46'
🔁C. Kinsombiout: M. Hannemann
46'
🔁J. Guttauout: J. Butler
55'
🔁F. Doumbiaout: A. Borgmann
🔁M. Momuluhout: B. Boakye
59'
🔁M. Worlout: S. Schreck
60'
🔁M. Mehlemout: I. Young
69'
75'
🔁H. Rorigout: R. Malone
75'
🔁L. Michelbrinkout: T. Campulka
⚽J. Grodowski (pen)
76'
Benjamin Boakye
78'
78'
Justin Butler
🔁J. Rocheltout: J. Felix
82'
🔁A. Sickerout: T. Handwerker
82'
Tim Handwerker
85'

Match stats — Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus

40%Possession60%
17Shots10
5On target0
7Corners10
3.57xG0.56

Goals against chances

Arminia Bielefeld3 from 3.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Energie Cottbus0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arminia Bielefeld 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 19M. GrosserD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 6M. MehlemM
  • 14M. MomuluhM
  • 38M. WorlM
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 10J. RocheltM
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
Substitutes
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 47P. HildesheimG
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 42T. WegenerM
  • 30I. YoungF
  • 28R. UldrikisF
  • 27B. BoakyeF
Coach: Oliver Kirch
Energie Cottbus 4-4-2
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 21L. ErleinD
  • 5D. PelivanD
  • 23F. DoumbiaD
  • 10T. CigerciM
  • 32L. BittencourtM
  • 8L. MichelbrinkM
  • 17J. GuttauM
  • 7C. KinsombiF
  • 9L. CopadoF
Substitutes
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 42J. ZaydanD
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 6J. HofmannM
  • 22Y. WardakM
  • 20A. BorgmannD
  • 11M. HannemannF
  • 31J. ButlerF
Coach: Claus-Dieter Wollitz

Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus

Arminia Bielefeld

  • L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026

Energie Cottbus

  • W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Arminia Bielefeld5113810-24
7Energie Cottbus52121312+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus

  • 16 August 2026Arminia Bielefeld 3–0 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
  • 18 January 2025Arminia Bielefeld 0–2 Energie Cottbus3. Liga
  • 4 August 2024Energie Cottbus 1–2 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
  • 4 April 2015Arminia Bielefeld 3–0 Energie Cottbus3. Liga
  • 28 September 2014Energie Cottbus 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
  • 23 March 2014Arminia Bielefeld 1–3 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and Energie Cottbus

Arminia Bielefeld

  • J. Grodowski4 goals

Energie Cottbus

  • T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assists
  • J. Butler2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.