16 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Hannover 96 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Hannover 96, 27% draw, 28% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hannover 96 at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hannover 960%Draw5%VfL Wolfsburg95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
🔁F. Hornbyout: R. Glatzel
🔁B. Tomiakout: I. Okon
62'
🔁L. Gindorfout: B. Kallman
62'
🔁M. Bunduout: B. Pichler
62'
66'
🔁M. Svanbergout: J. Adjetey
69'
Jonas Adjei Adjetey
74'
🔁Y. Gerhardtout: M. Arnold
74'
🔁M. Damarout: K. Shiogai
81'
Vinícius Souza
Jean Hugonet
86'
87'
⚽F. Reese (pen)
🔁K. Oudenneout: H. Matsuda
89'
89'
🔁J. Maehleout: K. Fischer
🔁B. Allgeierout: T. Etcibasi
90+1'

Match stats — Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg

52%Possession48%
14Shots18
2On target7
8Corners6
1.3xG1.71

Goals against chances

Hannover 960 from 1.30 xGless than the chances were worth
VfL Wolfsburg1 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hannover 96 3-3-1-3
  • 30L. WeinkaufG
  • 17B. AllgeierD
  • 3B. TomiakD
  • 4J. HugonetD
  • 33M. NeubauerM
  • 23S. T. ThordarsonM
  • 10M. HartelM
  • 8W. TaibiM
  • 7M. BunduF
  • 25L. GindorfF
  • 29K. OudenneF
Substitutes
  • 1P. LoretzG
  • 20I. OkonD
  • 19W. KokoloD
  • 13F. RoggowM
  • 27H. MatsudaD
  • 14H. ChakrounF
  • 9B. KallmanF
  • 11B. PichlerF
  • 28T. EtcibasiF
Coach: Christian Titz
VfL Wolfsburg 5-4-1
  • 30J. ZielinskiG
  • 21J. MaehleD
  • 32M. SvanbergD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 37E. RexhbecajD
  • 26S. KumbediD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 5Vini SouzaM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 11F. ReeseM
  • 10F. HornbyF
Substitutes
  • 12P. PervanG
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 8B. DardaiM
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
Coach: Tobias Strobl

Form going into Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg

Hannover 96

  • L1-3away to Energie Cottbus9 August 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Hannover 96511358-34
5VfL Wolfsburg5221107+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hannover 96 vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 16 August 2026Hannover 96 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
  • 6 September 2024VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 Hannover 96Friendlies Clubs
  • 27 July 2024Hannover 96 3–2 VfL WolfsburgFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 September 2021VfL Wolfsburg 3–3 Hannover 96Friendlies Clubs
  • 6 April 2019VfL Wolfsburg 3–1 Hannover 96Bundesliga
  • 9 November 2018Hannover 96 2–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga

Leading scorers: Hannover 96 and VfL Wolfsburg

Hannover 96

  • L. Gindorf3 goals

VfL Wolfsburg

  • F. Reese3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.