16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Famalicao vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Vila Nova de Famalicao
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Famalicao, 19% draw, 67% Maritimo — fair odds of 7.14, 5.26 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Maritimo at 67% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Famalicao3%Draw91%Maritimo6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. van Breemenassist: O. Aranda
8'
21'
⚽S. Bouzaidi
42'
Adrián Butzke
🔁Pedro Bondoout: L. Meyer
46'
🔁O. Arandaout: Gil Dias
46'
🔁P. Moreiraout: P. Santos
46'
Finn van Breemen
50'
68'
Igor Julião
73'
🔁A. Butzkeout: S. Bamba
73'
🔁M. Tejonout: M. Boakye
🔁G. Koutsiasout: U. Abubakar
76'
80'
🔁S. Bouzaidiout: T. Tavares
🔁Sorrisoout: R. Beney
85'
88'
🔁V. Danilovicout: G. Szalai
88'
🔁R. Andradeout: I. Ayuma
90'
⚽M. Boakye

Match stats — Famalicao vs Maritimo

67%Possession33%
14Shots9
4On target4
5Corners1
0.58xG1.61

Goals against chances

Famalicao1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
Maritimo2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevicG
  • 17R. PinheiroD
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro BondoD
  • 6T. Van de LooiM
  • 14M. De AmorimM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 19P. MoreiraM
  • 11O. ArandaM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 2GarciaD
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 30V. Serafimovic
  • 36M. MattaraD
  • 8M. PenaM
  • 21T. Szucs
  • 23Gil DiasF
  • 10P. SantosF
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
Maritimo 4-3-3
  • 13A. PastorG
  • 2Igor JuliaoD
  • 4R. FernandesD
  • 44R. CorreiaD
  • 23P. HenriqueD
  • 18V. DanilovicM
  • 6R. AndradeM
  • 14Raphael GuzzoM
  • 11S. BouzaidiF
  • 17A. ButzkeF
  • 10M. TejonF
Substitutes
  • 1G. TabuacoG
  • 30F. VieitesG
  • 15T. TavaresD
  • 22G. SzalaiD
  • 16F. SilvaM
  • 66I. AyumaM
  • 68N. BatistaM
  • 35B. LimbombeF
  • 27S. BambaF
Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag

Form going into Famalicao vs Maritimo

Famalicao

  • D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026

Maritimo

  • W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Famalicao604257-24
10Maritimo6213711-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Maritimo

  • 16 August 2026Famalicao 1–2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 22 April 2023Famalicao 3–2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 6 November 2022Maritimo 0–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 20 February 2022Maritimo 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 18 September 2021Famalicao 0–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
  • 21 March 2021Maritimo 0–4 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: Famalicao and Maritimo

Famalicao

  • G. Koutsias3 goals

Maritimo

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.