16 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden
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Final score: Dynamo Dresden 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Dynamo Dresden, 22% draw, 23% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 1.82, 4.55 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo Dresden at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo Dresden97%Draw3%SV Darmstadt 980%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Sternerassist: V. Vermeij
12'
Thomas Keller
26'
46'
🔁Y. Furukawaout: L. Kehl
59'
Kai Klefisch
71'
Marcel Schuhen
71'
Kai Klefisch
71'
Kai Klefisch
🔁N. Rappout: L. Boeder
79'
🔁N. Hauptmannout: L. Herrmann
79'
🔁K. Inanogluout: J. Lemmer
79'
79'
🔁N. Weisshauptout: N. Verkooijen
79'
🔁M. Smitout: Lee Ho-Jae
79'
🔁C. Sickingerout: M. Merx
🔁B. Bobzienout: N. Froling
89'
89'
🔁F. Kleinhanslout: R. Petretta

Match stats — Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98

62%Possession38%
12Shots10
6On target1
7Corners5
0.64xG0.38

Goals against chances

Dynamo Dresden1 from 0.64 xGabout what the chances were worth
SV Darmstadt 980 from 0.38 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 39T. KellerD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 6N. RappM
  • 11K. InanogluM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 40E. BethkeG
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovicD
  • 29L. BoederD
  • 8L. HerrmannM
  • 16N. FrolingF
  • 25J. OehmichenM
  • 33C. DafernerF
  • 10J. LemmerM
Coach: Thomas Stamm
SV Darmstadt 98 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. SchuhenG
  • 28C. LannertD
  • 6P. PfeifferD
  • 20A. VukoticD
  • 3F. KleinhanslD
  • 17K. KlefischM
  • 23C. SickingerM
  • 7N. WeisshauptM
  • 41L. DuijvestijnM
  • 44Y. FurukawaM
  • 36M. SmitF
Substitutes
  • 30A. BrunstG
  • 49Y. LuhrsD
  • 4G. DettoniD
  • 18R. PetrettaD
  • 22L. KehlM
  • 10N. VerkooijenM
  • 9Lee Ho-JaeF
  • 11I. El KadiriF
  • 48M. MerxF
Coach: Florian Kohfeldt

Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98

Dynamo Dresden

  • L0-3away to 1. FC Nürnberg9 August 2026

SV Darmstadt 98

  • D2-2Holstein Kiel8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Dynamo Dresden5113712-54
16SV Darmstadt 98511348-44

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98

  • 16 August 2026Dynamo Dresden 1–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 27 February 2026Dynamo Dresden 3–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 26 September 2025SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 30 October 2024Dynamo Dresden 2–3 SV Darmstadt 98DFB Pokal
  • 26 February 2022Dynamo Dresden 0–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 19 September 2021SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98

Dynamo Dresden

  • J. Sterner2 goals1 assists

SV Darmstadt 98

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.