Nacional vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Nacional 2-0 Estoril.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Nacional, 21% draw, 16% Estoril — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional at 63% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nacional vs Estoril
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Renato MarinG
- 34Léo SantosD
- 6Matheus DiasD
- 38Ze VitorD
- 52Wesley GasolinaM
- 28LizieroM
- 22Filipe SoaresM
- 7Markus JensenM
- 8Miguel BaezaF
- 10Daniel JúniorF
- 99Pablo Messias CardozoF
- 11Stavros GavrielM
- 88Deivison Souza BritoM
- 2Daniel De la CruzD
- 26Joel SilvaM
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 50KevynG
- 14Ivanildo FernandesD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 55Pedro SilvaD
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 8XekaM
- 5Antef TsounguiM
- 99Rafik GuitaneM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 7André LacximicantM
- 14Yanis BegraouiF
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 98Fabrício GarciaF
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 18Gonçalo CostaD
- 6Jandro OrellanaM
- 23Diogo DiasG
- 16Martin TurkG
- 42Jordan ArnolinD
- 19Tiago ParenteD
Form going into Nacional vs Estoril
Nacional
- D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026
Estoril
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Estoril
- 16 August 2026Nacional 2–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 15 March 2026Nacional 0–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2025Estoril 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Nacional 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 15 September 2024Estoril 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 25 July 2021Nacional 1–2 EstorilTaça da Liga