30 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC Premier League prediction & result

Asyut University Stadium, Asyut
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Asyut Petrol 1-1 El Gouna FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Asyut Petrol, 37% draw, 32% El Gouna FC — fair odds of 3.23, 2.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

the draw at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Asyut Petrol3%Draw95%El Gouna FC2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissa
2'
Zeyad Tarek
29'
34'
•Tolulope Samuel Ojo
36'
⚽Marwan Mohsen (pen)
45+3'
Omar El Gazar
45'
🔁Omar El Gazarout: David Simukonda
🔁Fathy Gamalout: Che Corines Bodne
45'
🔁Abdel Rahman Mohamed Eissaout: Abou Bakr Fawzi
45'
60'
Alpha Turay
64'
🔁Michael Egbembaout: marwan essam
•Ahmed Younes
69'
Ahmed Younes
69'
⚽Joshua Egajiassist: Che Corines Bodne
74'
🔁Mostafa Ahmed Abdel Hamidout: Ismail Ashraf
76'
🔁Joshua Egajiout: Mohamed Eid
76'
82'
🔁Marwan Mohsenout: Islam Hesham
83'
🔁Ahmed Gamalout: Alaa Shaaban
🔁Ibrahim Abassout: Ahmed Hamzawi
87'

Match stats — Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC

58%Possession42%
8Shots10
3On target3
5Corners1
0.61xG1.47

Goals against chances

Asyut Petrol1 from 0.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
El Gouna FC1 from 1.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Asyut Petrol 4-3-3
  • 1Amgad YoussefG
  • 30Abdelrahman MedhatD
  • 20A. ShokryD
  • 24Mahmoud AlaaD
  • 12Zeyad TarekD
  • 18Mohamed HeshaM
  • 19I. AbbasM
  • 11Mostafa SadafaM
  • 7Ahmed YounesF
  • 38Joshua EgagyF
  • 8Fathy GamalF
Substitutes
  • 17Ahmed HamzaM
  • 4Ali MahranD
  • 5Mahmoud AlaaD
  • 25A. AhmedG
  • 6Ahmed MagdyD
  • 35C. C. BodneF
  • 9M. EidF
  • 21F. Abu BakrM
  • 13Ismail AshrafF
Coach: Ahmed Abdelmaksoud
El Gouna FC 4-2-3-1
  • 16Eslam RishaG
  • 24Ali El ZahdiD
  • 44Alpha TurayD
  • 4Islam Abou SlemmaD
  • 20Ahmed BelyaD
  • 42M. EgbembaM
  • 14Nour El SayedM
  • 29T. OjoM
  • 13Omar El GazarM
  • 70Ahmed GamalM
  • 9Marwan MohsenF
Substitutes
  • 21Youssef AfifiD
  • 34M. EssamD
  • 6Ahmed GhoneimD
  • 19Mohamed HeshamF
  • 30Alaa ShaabanF
  • 33David SimukondaM
  • 90W. Parfait TeukeuM
  • 1A. MasoudG
  • 27Salah ZayedF
Coach: Alaa Abdel Aal

Form going into Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC

Asyut Petrol

Premier League

  • L0-1Zamalek SC20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Abu Qair Semad13 October 2026
  • L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026

El Gouna FC

Premier League

  • L0-2Smouha SC19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Al Ittihad Alexandria13 October 2026
  • L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Asyut Petrol conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Asyut Petrol failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Asyut Petrol failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • El Gouna FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Asyut Petrol813448-46
20El Gouna FC8035511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC

  • 4 December 2025El Gouna FC 2–1 Asyut PetrolCup
  • 4 May 2023El Gouna FC 1–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League - Group A
  • 8 December 2022Asyut Petrol 1–0 El Gouna FCSecond League - Group A

The result against the call

Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC drew 1–1. The model had made a draw its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 0–0. The goals: Marwan Mohsen (penalty) 36' for El Gouna FC, Joshua Egaji 74' for Asyut Petrol. Sent off: Alpha Turay (El Gouna FC) 60'. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Asyut Petrol a 44.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.6% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 57.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 45.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For El Gouna FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 56.6% going in: 41.9% after a win, 59.1% after a draw, 69.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.1%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Asyut Petrol v El Gouna FC has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 31% / 35% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 37% / 32%: the biggest move is El Gouna FC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Asyut Petrol win31%=
  2. Draw37%▲ +2
  3. El Gouna FC win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.