30 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Premier League prediction & result

Obolon Arena, Kyiv
Referee: M. Balakin
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Obolon'-Brovar.

Before kick-off the model made it 85% Shakhtar Donetsk, 11% draw, 4% Obolon'-Brovar — fair odds of 1.18, 9.09 and 25.00.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Shakhtar Donetsk at 85%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Shakhtar Donetsk99%Draw1%Obolon'-Brovar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

44'
🔁S. Sukhanovout: D. Ustymenko
🔁O. Karavaevout: V. Tobias
61'
🔁Bruninhoout: Alisson
61'
🔁D. Kryskivout: Luca Meirelles
61'
⚽Alissonassist: Newerton
70'
🔁Newertonout: Marlon Gomes
78'
🔁Isaque Silvaout: G. Mendoza
78'
78'
🔁M. Chekhout: I. Medynskyi
78'
🔁D. Myshnyovout: P. Polegenko
⚽Alissonassist: V. Tobias
85'
86'
🔁R. Volokhatyiout: A. Matkevych
86'
🔁O. Slobodyanout: D. Teslyuk
🔁O. Ocheretkoout: Y. Nazaryna
88'

Line-ups

Shakhtar Donetsk
  • 31D. Riznyk
  • 20O. Karavaev
  • 18A. Ghram
  • 5V. Bondar
  • 16I. Azarovi
  • 27O. Ocheretko
  • 8D. Kryskiv
  • 14Isaque Silva
  • 99Bruninho
  • 2L. Traore
  • 11Newerton
Substitutes
  • 48D. Tvardovskyi
  • 6Marlon Gomes
  • 9Kaua Elias
  • 13Pedro Henrique
  • 17V. Tobias
  • 22M. Matvienko
  • 28A. Matturro
  • 29Y. Nazaryna
  • 30Alisson
Coach: Arda Turan
Obolon'-Brovar
  • 12K. Barantsov
  • 2D. Kapinus
  • 4T. Moroz
  • 3V. Yermakov
  • 30K. Prokopchuk
  • 5Y. Shevchenko
  • 15D. Myshnyov
  • 6M. Chekh
  • 20R. Volokhatyi
  • 10O. Slobodyan
  • 55S. Sukhanov
Substitutes
  • 36N. Vorobyov
  • 1N. Fedorivsky
  • 32A. Lomnytskyi
  • 7A. Matkevych
  • 13I. Medynskyi
  • 28P. Polegenko
  • 78V. Skrygun
  • 99D. Teslyuk
  • 9D. Ustymenko
Coach: Oleksandr Antonenko

Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar

Shakhtar Donetsk

Premier League

  • D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
  • W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026

Obolon'-Brovar

Premier League

  • L0-3away to Polessya23 October 2026
  • W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk12921225+1729
14Obolon'-Brovar11155518-138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar

  • 13 May 2026Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 22 November 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–6 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
  • 29 March 2025Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
  • 23 September 2024Shakhtar Donetsk 4–0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
  • 30 March 2024Obolon'-Brovar 0–3 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League

Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Obolon'-Brovar

Shakhtar Donetsk

GoalsAssists

  • Alisson Santana32
  • Kauã Elias30

Obolon'-Brovar

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 2–0. The model had made a win for Shakhtar Donetsk its most likely outcome, at 85%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Alisson 70' for Shakhtar Donetsk, Alisson 85' for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 75.5% chance to finish top of the regular season: 76.7% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 62.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.7%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

For Obolon'-Brovar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 76.7% going in: 59.2% after a win, 71.6% after a draw, 77.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.4%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.