30 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Criciuma vs Ponte Preta Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma
Referee: Yuri Elino Ferreira Da Cruz
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Criciuma 2-0 Ponte Preta.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Criciuma, 18% draw, 9% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.37, 5.56 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Criciuma at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Criciuma99%Draw1%Ponte Preta0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
•Danilo Barcelos
25'
Danilo Barcelos
38'
Rodrigo Souza
⚽Fellipe Mateusassist: Nicolas Godinho Johann
45+5'
🔁Jhonata Robert Alves da Silvaout: Diego Gonçalves
45'
45'
🔁David da Horaout: Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
45'
🔁Denisout: Gustavo Felipe Almeida
Diego Gonçalves
49'
Guilherme Teixeira Lobo
57'
61'
🔁Daniloout: Miguel Morais Silva Santos
🔁Guilherme Teixeira Loboout: Eduardo Biasi
61'
Willean Bernardo
71'
🔁Willean Bernardoout: Marcio Almeida de Oliveira
75'
🔁Nicolas Godinho Johannout: Yuri Jonathan
75'
80'
Gabriel Caran
81'
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
🔁Fellipe Mateusout: Waguininho
86'
86'
Vinicius Ferrari Andreoli
88'
🔁Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júniorout: Cauã Felipi Silva Coelho
Eduardo Biasi
89'
⚽Diego Gonçalves
89'
Rómulo Otero
90+6'

Match stats — Criciuma vs Ponte Preta

73%Possession27%
31Shots5
7On target2
11Corners3
2.09xG0.16

Goals against chances

Criciuma2 from 2.09 xGabout what the chances were worth
Ponte Preta0 from 0.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Criciuma 4-2-3-1
  • 32AirtonG
  • 97Willean LepoD
  • 37César MartinsD
  • 4Luciano CastánD
  • 22Marcelo HermesD
  • 8Guilherme LoboM
  • 14RonaldM
  • 91R. OteroM
  • 7Fellipe MateusM
  • 10Jhonata RobertM
  • 9NicolasF
Substitutes
  • 3RodrigoD
  • 13WaguininhoF
  • 21João CarlosF
  • 41Jean IrmerM
  • 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
  • 5EduardoM
  • 77Diego GonçalvesF
  • 34Bruno AlvesD
  • 70PedroG
Coach: Umberto Louzer
Ponte Preta 5-4-1
  • 30ViniciusG
  • 32Felipe Di MauroD
  • 23S. PalaciosD
  • 15Gabriel CaranD
  • 14Danilo BarcelosD
  • 19DaniloD
  • 18David da HoraM
  • 5Rodrigo SouzaM
  • 22DenisM
  • 8KarlM
  • 9BrandãoF
Substitutes
  • 17MiguelM
  • 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
  • 3Guilherme Martins FerreiraM
  • 4Diego Monteiro LeaoD
  • 2Ryan Henrique Pereira AndradeM
  • 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
  • 6JuanD
  • 20KawannD
  • 35C. CoelhoF
Coach: Gilson Kleina

Form going into Criciuma vs Ponte Preta

Criciuma

Serie B

  • L1-2away to Sport Recife24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026

Ponte Preta

Serie B

  • D2-2Fortaleza EC24 October 2026
  • D1-1Atletico Goianiense16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Criciuma38188123832+662
20Ponte Preta3836292181-6015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Criciuma vs Ponte Preta

  • 8 July 2026Ponte Preta 1–2 CriciumaSerie B
  • 2 August 2023Criciuma 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 22 April 2023Ponte Preta 1–2 CriciumaSerie B
  • 29 October 2022Ponte Preta 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
  • 15 July 2022Criciuma 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 9 April 2021Criciuma 1–1 Ponte PretaCopa Do Brasil

The result against the call

Criciuma beat Ponte Preta 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Criciuma at 73%. The goals: Fellipe Mateus 45+5' for Criciuma, Diego Gonçalves 89' for Criciuma. Sent off: Danilo Barcelos (Ponte Preta) 25'. On expected goals it finished 2.09–0.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Criciuma a 3.4% chance to finish in the top two: 4.0% after a win, under 1% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.