25 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Ester Roa
Referee: Claudio Diaz Mera
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Universidad de Concepcion 0-1 Deportes Limache.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Universidad de Concepcion, 28% draw, 43% Deportes Limache — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes Limache at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universidad de Concepcion0%Draw3%Deportes Limache97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Augusto Ezequiel Aguirre
18'
⚽Daniel Castro (pen)
31'
Daniel Castro
Benjamín Sáez
35'
🔁Benjamín Sáezout: Jorge Espejo
45'
🔁Iam Gonzalezout: Luis Rojas
66'
🔁Antonio Diazout: Patricio Fernandez
66'
Harol Salgado
67'
71'
🔁Dylan Escobarout: Tiago Hernández Galletto
71'
🔁Daniel Castroout: Leonardo Valencia
🔁Harol Salgadoout: T. Roco
76'
76'
🔁Gonzalo Sosaout: Marcos Arturia
🔁Facundo Materout: Rogelio Funes
76'
90+3'
🔁Misael Llanténout: Carlos Jeremy Morales Gatica

Match stats — Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache

62%Possession38%
23Shots8
5On target4
9Corners0
2.15xG1.16

Goals against chances

Universidad de Concepcion0 from 2.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Deportes Limache1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universidad de Concepcion 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. BrounG
  • 32B. SaezD
  • 17M. GonzálezD
  • 3M. BarbieriD
  • 11A. DíazD
  • 16B. OgazM
  • 25H. SalgadoM
  • 8F. MaterM
  • 10J. FuentealbaM
  • 7I. GonzálezM
  • 18C. WatermanF
Substitutes
  • 34F. HerreraM
  • 21J. EspejoD
  • 22R. Funes MoriF
  • 12D. MatamalaG
  • 24V. OñateF
  • 2Páez PáezM
  • 26T. RocoF
  • 20L. RojasM
  • 23P. RomeroD
Coach: Cristián Muñoz
Deportes Limache 3-5-2
  • 23CésarG
  • 24A. ParotD
  • 5A. AlfonzoD
  • 2A. AguirreD
  • 33D. EscobarM
  • 25M. LlanténM
  • 16J. MenesesM
  • 6C. FuentesM
  • 11Javier RojasM
  • 19D. CastroF
  • 9G. SosaF
Substitutes
  • 26M. ArturiaF
  • 27T. GallettoM
  • 17C. GonzálezG
  • 14H. MartínezM
  • 3B. MolinaD
  • 7C. MoralesD
  • 10L. ValenciaM
  • 15V. ÁlvarezF
Coach: V. Rivero

Form going into Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache

Universidad de Concepcion

Primera División

  • D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
  • L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026

Deportes Limache

Primera División

  • D2-2Palestino11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Union La Calera14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Universidad de Concepcion2775152249-2726
4Deportes Limache27124114840+840

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universidad de Concepcion vs Deportes Limache

  • 18 April 2026Deportes Limache 3–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
  • 5 August 2024Universidad de Concepcion 2–0 Deportes LimachePrimera B
  • 24 March 2024Deportes Limache 0–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera B

Leading scorers: Universidad de Concepcion and Deportes Limache

Universidad de Concepcion

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Deportes Limache

GoalsAssists

  • D. Castro147
  • G. Sosa80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportes Limache won 1–0 at Universidad de Concepcion. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Deportes Limache at 43%. The goal: Daniel Castro (penalty) 18' for Deportes Limache. On expected goals it finished 2.15–1.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad de Concepcion a 89.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 79.5% after a win, 92.2% after a draw, 94.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.6%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

For Deportes Limache the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.7% going in: 14.0% after a win, 5.1% after a draw, 2.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.0%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Universidad de Concepcion v Deportes Limache has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 29% / 28% / 43%: the biggest move is Universidad de Concepcion's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Universidad de Concepcion win29%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Deportes Limache win43%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.