25 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica Primera División prediction & result

La Calera
Referee: Cristian Garay
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Union La Calera 3-1 Universidad Catolica.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Union La Calera, 27% draw, 47% Universidad Catolica — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad Catolica at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union La Calera96%Draw4%Universidad Catolica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Nicolás Avellaneda
14'
38'
•Fernando Zuqui
40'
⚽Fernando Zampedri (pen)
Camilo Moya
44'
⚽Sebastián Sáezassist: Christopher Díaz
45+3'
🔁Matías Campos Lópezout: Brian Nicolás Ferreyra
45'
🔁Joan Cruzout: Bayron Oyarzo
45'
•Sebastián Sáez
51'
56'
🔁Diego Corral Contrerasout: Clemente Montes
56'
🔁Justo Gianiout: Martin Gomez
⚽Brian Nicolás Ferreyraassist: Bayron Oyarzo
58'
🔁Joaquín Sotoout: Martín Hiriart Espinoza
62'
70'
🔁Sebastián Andrés Arancibia Floresout: Branco Ampuero
70'
🔁Matias Palavecinoout: Jimmy Martínez
80'
🔁Fernando Zuquiout: Juan Francisco Rossel
84'
Jimmy Martínez
90+3'
Jhojan Valencia
🔁Camilo Moyaout: Vicente Lavín
90+3'
90+3'
Branco Ampuero
Bayron Oyarzo
90+6'
⚽Bayron Oyarzo
90+7'

Match stats — Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica

39%Possession61%
9Shots15
3On target3
4Corners3
0.95xG1.83

Goals against chances

Union La Calera3 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth
Universidad Catolica1 from 1.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union La Calera 4-3-3
  • 1N. AvellanedaG
  • 25C. DíazD
  • 15J. SalomoniD
  • 27D. GutiérrezD
  • 4C. GutiérrezD
  • 23R. PérezM
  • 5C. MoyaM
  • 29J. SotoM
  • 11S. SáezF
  • 20J. CruzF
  • 19M. CamposF
Substitutes
  • 2Y. AndíaD
  • 22Benjamín AstudilloG
  • 32B. FerreyraF
  • 17M. HiriartF
  • 8Y. LeivaM
  • 7B. OyarzoF
  • 21Valentino TorrenteM
  • 13Pablo Esteban Valero CifuentesM
  • 6V. LavinD
Coach: J. Armijo
Universidad Catolica 4-1-4-1
  • 1V. BernedoG
  • 6S. ArancibiaD
  • 2D. GónzalezD
  • 21A. GarcíaD
  • 3E. MenaD
  • 20J. ValenciaM
  • 25D. CorralM
  • 10M. PalavecinoM
  • 8F. ZuquiM
  • 7J. GianiM
  • 9F. ZampedriF
Substitutes
  • 18J. RosselF
  • 11C. MontesF
  • 27D. MeloG
  • 14J. MartínezM
  • 5A. FaríasM
  • 13A. CanalesM
  • 19B. AmpueroD
  • 22M. GómezM
  • 39N. L’HuillierD
Coach: Daniel Garnero

Form going into Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica

Union La Calera

Primera División

  • D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
  • W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026

Universidad Catolica

Primera División

  • W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union La Calera2766152443-1924
3Universidad Catolica2715485637+1949

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union La Calera vs Universidad Catolica

  • 26 September 2026Universidad Catolica 0–0 Union La CaleraCopa Chile
  • 23 September 2026Union La Calera 1–1 Universidad CatolicaCopa Chile
  • 21 April 2026Universidad Catolica 1–2 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 6 December 2025Universidad Catolica 2–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
  • 20 June 2025Union La Calera 1–1 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
  • 21 March 2025Universidad Catolica 0–1 Union La CaleraCopa Chile

Leading scorers: Union La Calera and Universidad Catolica

Union La Calera

GoalsAssists

  • S. Sáez91

Universidad Catolica

GoalsAssists

  • F. Zampedri262
  • J. Giani74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union La Calera beat Universidad Catolica 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Universidad Catolica at 47% and given a win for Union La Calera 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Fernando Zampedri (penalty) 40' for Universidad Catolica, Sebastián Sáez 45+3' for Union La Calera, Brian Nicolás Ferreyra 58' for Union La Calera, Bayron Oyarzo 90+7' for Union La Calera. Sent off: Jimmy Martínez (Universidad Catolica) 84'. On expected goals it finished 0.95–1.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad Catolica these chances to finish in the top four: 98.8% after a win, 97.0% after a draw, 93.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 93.6%.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.