Crystal Palace vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 37% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Crystal Palace at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44W. BenítezG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 11D. McNeilM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 14J. MatetaF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 19W. HughesM
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 8J. LermaM
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 29E. GuessandF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 5F. SchärD
- 33D. BurnD
- 3L. HallD
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 7JoelintonM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 28J. WillockM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 19A. ElangaF
- 1N. PopeG
- 4S. BotmanD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 8A. BambaM
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 41J. RamseyM
- 9Y. WissaF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
Newcastle
Premier League
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle
Crystal Palace and Newcastle have met 7 times in the records we hold, Newcastle has won 4 of them to Crystal Palace's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Newcastle won the last one 2–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle - 12 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle - 4 Jan 2026
Premier LeagueNewcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace - 16 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueNewcastle 5–0 Crystal Palace - 30 Nov 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle - 24 Apr 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 2–0 Newcastle - 21 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueNewcastle 4–0 Crystal Palace
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Newcastle's attack rates 20% above Crystal Palace's, and Newcastle concede 16% fewer than Crystal Palace. That gives Newcastle the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 0.84 | 1.27 |
| Newcastle | 1.01 | 1.07 |
The result against the call
Newcastle won 2–0 at Crystal Palace. The model had leaned towards a win for Crystal Palace at 38% and given a win for Newcastle 37%. The goals: William Osula 47' for Newcastle, Harvey Barnes 58' for Newcastle. On expected goals it finished 1.78–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crystal Palace a 41.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.8% after a win, 42.7% after a draw, 47.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.0%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.
For Newcastle the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.1% going in: 20.7% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 32.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.7%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Crystal Palace v Newcastle has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 34% / 25% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 25% / 37%: the biggest move is Crystal Palace's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Crystal Palace win38%▲ +4
- Draw25%=
- Newcastle win37%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.