25 October 2026, 10:30 UTC

Pendikspor vs Kayserispor 1. Lig prediction & result

Pendik Stadyumu, Istanbul
Referee: Burak Pakkan
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Pendikspor 2-2 Kayserispor.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Pendikspor, 27% draw, 52% Kayserispor — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kayserispor at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pendikspor2%Draw92%Kayserispor6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Daniel Moreno
⚽Jonson Clarke-Harris (pen)
28'
Taha Emre İnce
55'
M. Özdemir
56'
58'
⚽Benhur Keser (pen)
🔁Jonson Clarke-Harrisout: Ahmet Özkaya
59'
65'
🔁Denis Raduout: Manadi Camara
72'
🔁Florent Hasaniout: Oğulcan Çağlayan
🔁M. Özdemirout: Y. Sönmez
75'
🔁Emrah Başsanout: Efehan Pekdemir
75'
Thuram
76'
🔁Thuramout: Muhamed Kiprit
80'
🔁Samuel Abifadeout: F. Doğan
80'
83'
🔁Benhur Keserout: Murat Cem Akpinar
90+1'
⚽Daniel Moreno
Bekir Karadeniz
90+2'
Kerem Kalafat
90+4'
•Kerem Kalafat
90+5'
•Muhamed Kiprit
90+6'
⚽Muhamed Kiprit (pen)
90+7'

Match stats — Pendikspor vs Kayserispor

33%Possession67%
14Shots27
4On target9
5Corners7
2.21xG4.33

Goals against chances

Pendikspor2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kayserispor2 from 4.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pendikspor 4-1-4-1
  • 78E. DadükG
  • 22K. KalafatD
  • 2T. İnceD
  • 6V. SoldoD
  • 17S. AbifadeD
  • 41M. ÖzdemirM
  • 7E. BaşsanM
  • 60B. KaradenizM
  • 14H. YeşilM
  • 34ThuramM
  • 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
Substitutes
  • 66F. DoğanD
  • 25Favour Agingy FomujangD
  • 23E. GökçeD
  • 88D. HreljaF
  • 99M. KipritF
  • 28E. PekdemirM
  • 20Y. SönmezM
  • 77A. UğurM
  • 97U. YuvakuranG
Coach: M. Şahin
Kayserispor 4-3-3
  • 35G. DeğirmenciG
  • 7M. UçarD
  • 4S. GülerD
  • 3J. TabidzeD
  • 22D. RaduD
  • 9F. HasaniM
  • 8S. KurtM
  • 61G. SağlamM
  • 10B. KeserF
  • 27D. MorenoF
  • 97T. SeferiF
Substitutes
  • 18F. ÖzerD
  • 71O. ÇağlayanF
  • 11E. KemaloğluM
  • 38Ataol KarapinarM
  • 17M. GöçkanD
  • 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
  • 88M. DulcaM
  • 5K. CihanD
  • 28Mamadi CamaráM
Coach: A. Gerin

Form going into Pendikspor vs Kayserispor

Pendikspor

1. Lig

  • L0-2away to Bursaspor19 October 2026
  • L1-2Vanspor FK13 October 2026

Kayserispor

1. Lig

  • D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Pendikspor143561525-1014
2Kayserispor149323311+2230

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs Kayserispor

  • 19 July 2026Kayserispor 1–2 PendiksporFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 April 2024Pendikspor 1–2 KayserisporSüper Lig
  • 10 December 2023Kayserispor 2–0 PendiksporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Pendikspor and Kayserispor

Pendikspor

No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Kayserispor

GoalsAssists

  • T. Seferi102
  • D. Moreno101
  • F. Hasani50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pendikspor and Kayserispor drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Kayserispor at 52% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jonson Clarke-Harris (penalty) 28' for Pendikspor, Benhur Keser (penalty) 58' for Kayserispor, Daniel Moreno 90+1' for Kayserispor, Muhamed Kiprit (penalty) 90+7' for Pendikspor. Sent off: Taha Emre İnce (Pendikspor) 55'. On expected goals it finished 2.21–4.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pendikspor a 45.8% chance to finish in the bottom four: 36.5% after a win, 45.2% after a draw, 48.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 45.2%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

For Kayserispor the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 55.6% going in: 58.9% after a win, 51.3% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 51.3%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pendikspor v Kayserispor has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 21% / 27% / 52%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, up 15 points.

  1. Pendikspor win21%▼ −14
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Kayserispor win52%▲ +15

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.