Hull City vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Hull City 1-1 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Hull City, 29% draw, 37% Brentford — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Brentford at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hull City vs Brentford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 21E. StroudM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 50M. ChoF
- 47R. VazF
- 25M. CrooksM
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 11J. GelhardtF
- 7S. ThomasF
- 5H. MoritaM
- 17P. McNairD
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 4S. van den BergD
- 20K. AjerD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 2A. HickeyM
- 11D. OuattaraM
- 8M. JensenM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 39Gustavo GomesF
- 13C. WilsonF
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 19J. AnthonyF
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 48B. FredrickD
- 25E. DioufD
- 22N. CollinsD
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
Form going into Hull City vs Brentford
Hull City
Premier League
- L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
- D2-2Everton11 October 2026
Brentford
Premier League
- L1-2Liverpool17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aston Villa10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Hull City
Brentford and Hull City have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Hull City on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 |
| Hull City | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 3.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueHull City 1–1 Brentford - 1 Feb 2020
ChampionshipHull City 1–5 Brentford - 17 Aug 2019
ChampionshipBrentford 1–1 Hull City - 23 Feb 2019
ChampionshipBrentford 5–1 Hull City - 15 Dec 2018
ChampionshipHull City 2–0 Brentford - 6 May 2018
ChampionshipBrentford 1–1 Hull City - 9 Dec 2017
ChampionshipHull City 3–2 Brentford
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Brentford's attack rates 31% above Hull City's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Hull City and Brentford
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hull City and Brentford drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Brentford at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Oliver McBurnie (penalty) 24' for Hull City, Dango Ouattara 63' for Brentford. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hull City a 8.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.5% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 8.4%.
For Brentford the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.0% going in: 12.3% after a win, 9.2% after a draw, 6.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 9.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hull City v Brentford has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Hull City's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Hull City win34%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Brentford win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.