24 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

AS Roma vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time4 – 0

Final score: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% AS Roma, 15% draw, 9% Fiorentina — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AS Roma at 76% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma99%Draw1%Fiorentina0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Malenassist: P. Dybala
27'
30'
Nicolò Fagioli
Mario Hermoso
39'
Manu Koné
49'
⚽D. Malenassist: P. Dybala
52'
🔁R. Moraout: M. Soule
54'
⚽D. Malenassist: P. Dybala
60'
62'
🔁M. Brescianiniout: A. Jimenez
62'
🔁N. Fagioliout: C. Inao Oulai
63'
Mateo Pellegrino
63'
🔁F. Mastantuonoout: M. Kean
🔁M. Hermosoout: K. Koulierakis
68'
🔁D. Malenout: S. Castro
68'
74'
🔁A. Attaout: R. Mandragora
🔁M. Koneout: N. Pisilli
79'
🔁P. Dybalaout: N. El Aynaoui
79'
80'
🔁Joao Marioout: V. Valdepenas
⚽N. Pisilli
86'

Match stats — AS Roma vs Fiorentina

61%Possession39%
17Shots9
8On target4
2Corners3
2.77xG0.28

Goals against chances

AS Roma4 from 2.77 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fiorentina0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 99M. SvilarG
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 5E. NdickaD
  • 22M. HermosoD
  • 77E. LulliM
  • 4B. CristanteM
  • 17M. KoneM
  • 43Wesley FrancaM
  • 21P. DybalaF
  • 86R. MoraF
  • 14D. MalenF
Substitutes
  • 70G. De MarziG
  • 95P. GolliniG
  • 20N. MolinaD
  • 3K. KoulierakisD
  • 24J. ZiolkowskiD
  • 87D. GhilardiD
  • 61N. PisilliM
  • 8N. El AynaouiM
  • 9S. CastroF
Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian
Fiorentina 4-3-2-1
  • 43D. de GeaG
  • 2DodoD
  • 3R. DragusinD
  • 6L. RanieriD
  • 17Joao MarioD
  • 27C. NdourM
  • 44N. FagioliM
  • 4M. BrescianiniM
  • 30F. MastantuonoM
  • 14A. AttaM
  • 32M. PellegrinoF
Substitutes
  • 19L. LezzeriniG
  • 53O. ChristensenG
  • 5M. PongracicD
  • 20A. JimenezD
  • 71E. KospoD
  • 33VieryD
  • 21V. Valdepenas
  • 8R. MandragoraM
  • 80G. FabbianM
Coach: Fabio Grosso

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1AS Roma4400121+1112
15Fiorentina4103511-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Fiorentina

  • 24 August 2026AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 4 May 2026AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 5 October 2025Fiorentina 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
  • 4 May 2025AS Roma 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 27 October 2024Fiorentina 5–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 10 March 2024Fiorentina 2–2 AS RomaSerie A

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Fiorentina

AS Roma

  • D. Malen6 goals
  • M. Soulé2 goals1 assists

Fiorentina

  • Franco Mastantuono3 goals
  • Mateo Pellegrino2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.