23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Venezia vs Lecce Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Venezia 0-2 Lecce.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Venezia, 23% draw, 26% Lecce — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Venezia at 51% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Venezia0%Draw1%Lecce99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
Kialonda Gaspar
•Thierry Correia
16'
46'
🔁A. Galloout: C. Ndaba
46'
⚽O. Gorterassist: L. Coulibaly
59'
Oumar Ngom
61'
🔁O. Gorterout: Y. Maleh
🔁T. Rendallout: R. Haps
64'
🔁K. Perezout: M. Dagasso
70'
71'
Danilo Veiga
74'
🔁K. Ndriout: Tiago Gabriel
74'
🔁W. Geubbelsout: N. Stulic
Matteo Dagasso
78'
80'
⚽Tiago Gabriel
🔁A. Hainautout: R. Sagrado
85'
🔁T. Basicout: A. Rrahmani
85'
90+1'
🔁S. Pierottiout: O. Gandelman

Match stats — Venezia vs Lecce

71%Possession29%
19Shots12
7On target5
5Corners3
2.1xG2.21

Goals against chances

Venezia0 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth
Lecce2 from 2.21 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Venezia 3-5-2
  • 1F. StankovicG
  • 3J. SchingtienneD
  • 17A. Bella-KotchapD
  • 4B. FranjicD
  • 18A. HainautM
  • 71K. PerezM
  • 6G. BusioM
  • 26T. BasicM
  • 14T. RendallM
  • 10J. YeboahF
  • 45A. AdamsF
Substitutes
  • 96L. MontipoG
  • 5R. HapsD
  • 25R. HalhalD
  • 20R. SagradoD
  • 95A. GomesD
  • 21T. J. HelgasonM
  • 30M. DagassoM
  • 19S. SohmM
  • 55S. PanadaM
Coach: Giovanni Stroppa
Lecce 4-3-3
  • 30W. FalconeG
  • 17D. VeigaD
  • 4K. GasparD
  • 5J. SiebertD
  • 25A. GalloD
  • 29L. CoulibalyM
  • 79O. NgomM
  • 28O. GorterM
  • 50S. PierottiF
  • 69W. GeubbelsF
  • 11K. NdriF
Substitutes
  • 1M. BleveG
  • 33P. PenevG
  • 8S. FofanaM
  • 3C. NdabaD
  • 44Tiago GabrielD
  • 14Y. MalehM
  • 16O. GandelmanM
  • 34H. LaerkeF
  • 9N. StulicF
Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Venezia4004411-70
12Lecce420257-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Venezia vs Lecce

  • 23 August 2026Venezia 0–2 LecceSerie A
  • 6 April 2025Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie A
  • 25 November 2024Venezia 0–1 LecceSerie A
  • 20 May 2021Lecce 1–1 VeneziaSerie B
  • 17 May 2021Venezia 1–0 LecceSerie B
  • 16 March 2021Venezia 2–3 LecceSerie B

Leading scorers: Venezia and Lecce

Venezia

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Lecce

  • L. Coulibaly2 goals1 assists
  • Tiago Gabriel2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.