23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Torino vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Torino 1-2 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Torino, 21% draw, 28% AC Milan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Torino at 51% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torino0%Draw1%AC Milan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
56'
🔁R. Loftus-Cheekout: L. Modric
56'
🔁A. Jashariout: A. Rabiot
64'
⚽A. Cisseassist: A. Rabiot
66'
🔁P. Estupinanout: D. Bartesaghi
66'
🔁A. Cisseout: A. Saelemaekers
66'
⚽A. Rabiotassist: S. Chukwueze
🔁M. Pedersenout: N. Fortini
70'
🔁C. Casadeiout: C. Adams
70'
🔁G. Simeoneout: A. Njie
70'
76'
🔁M. Gilaout: M. Gabbia
🔁A. Cacciamaniout: Z. Aboukhlal
81'
🔁P. Comuzzoout: S. Kulenovic
85'
⚽C. Adamsassist: G. Gineitis
90'

Match stats — Torino vs AC Milan

41%Possession59%
8Shots19
1On target4
2Corners4
1.01xG1.61

Goals against chances

Torino1 from 1.01 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Milan2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Torino 3-4-2-1
  • 26D. MascardiG
  • 23S. CocoD
  • 44A. IsmajliD
  • 15P. ComuzzoD
  • 16M. PedersenM
  • 66G. GineitisM
  • 28K. Fitz-JimM
  • 77A. CacciamaniM
  • 10N. VlasicF
  • 22C. CasadeiF
  • 18G. SimeoneF
Substitutes
  • 76L. SivieroG
  • 1A. PaleariG
  • 3C. BiraghiD
  • 21A. DembeleD
  • 29N. FortiniD
  • 25M. PelliniD
  • 11G. OristanioM
  • 6E. IlkhanM
  • 79A. LuongoF
Coach: Ignazio Abate
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34M. GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovicD
  • 21S. ChukwuezeM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 2P. EstupinanM
  • 8R. Loftus-CheekF
  • 70A. CisseF
  • 9G. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 96L. TorrianiG
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 46M. GabbiaD
  • 13S. DiawaraD
  • 14L. ModricM
  • 56A. SaelemaekersF
  • 4S. RicciM
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Torino410347-33
6AC Milan422074+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torino vs AC Milan

  • 23 August 2026Torino 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
  • 21 March 2026AC Milan 3–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 8 December 2025Torino 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
  • 22 February 2025Torino 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
  • 17 August 2024AC Milan 2–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 18 May 2024Torino 3–1 AC MilanSerie A

Leading scorers: Torino and AC Milan

Torino

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

AC Milan

  • A. Cissè2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.