Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Asteras Tripolis 1-1 Kalamata.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Asteras Tripolis, 27% draw, 35% Kalamata — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Asteras Tripolis at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. PapadopoulosG
- 27G. KotsirasD
- 32J. SilvaD
- 6K. ChrisopoulosD
- 28Alex MéndezD
- 19F. OrozcoM
- 21D. KourbelisM
- 10Eder GonzálezM
- 75B. Mbunga KimpiokaM
- 8I. BouzoukisM
- 9F. MachedaF
- 74D. LaskarisD
- 11K. KetuF
- 20N. KaltsasF
- 80B. PérezM
- 17A. TereziouF
- 39RicardinhoF
- 66Matias ZoguM
- 44A. PapakanellosM
- 22Chrysanthos GezosF
- 1I. GeliosG
- 22P. KaloutsikidisD
- 4S. StroungisD
- 97RodriguesD
- 17Julio AlonsoD
- 24E. HamzaM
- 6D. DiarraM
- 10A. SigurðssonM
- 7J. CataldiM
- 20A. Mendes MoreiraM
- 91D. KurminowskiF
- 19M. J. BakayokoD
- 9J. BolívarF
- 32J. BonettoF
- 21M. CarreazoM
- 12I. ChatzitheodoridisD
- 26P. GinisG
- 29U. IgnjatovićD
- 8A. LiatsikourasM
- 11Josete MirandaF
Form going into Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
Super League 1
- L1-2away to PAOK1 November 2026
- D0-0Levadiakos24 October 2026
- L1-5away to Panathinaikos18 October 2026
- W2-1Atromitos10 October 2026
Kalamata
Super League 1
- D1-1Iraklis 19082 November 2026
- L0-5away to Olympiakos Piraeus25 October 2026
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
What these results say
- Asteras Tripolis failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Asteras Tripolis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kalamata scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Kalamata had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
GoalsAssists
- F. Macheda31
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Asteras Tripolis at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Federico Macheda 45+1' for Asteras Tripolis, Jovanny Bolivar 67' for Kalamata. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Asteras Tripolis a 48.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 37.8% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 57.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 50.7%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Kalamata the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.4% going in: 5.6% after a win, 11.0% after a draw, 16.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 11.0%.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 30% / 27% / 43% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Asteras Tripolis's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Asteras Tripolis win38%▲ +8
- Draw27%=
- Kalamata win35%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.