Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Ümraniyespor 2-1 Kayserispor.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Ümraniyespor, 28% draw, 47% Kayserispor — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Kayserispor at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35C. TopaloğluG
- 70O. YıldırımD
- 58M. KartalD
- 44T. GlumacD
- 88E. GedikD
- 7S. HostikkaM
- 8S. GöksuM
- 10A. ĐokanovićM
- 12Toheeb KosokoM
- 11Álex BlancoF
- 27C. SoukouF
- 28O. AydoğanF
- 20A. BabacanM
- 9M. BostanF
- 4M. EserD
- 13Ö. KöklüG
- 77T. TaşçıF
- 66A. YaşarD
- 26B. ÇakırD
- 53B. ÖksüzD
- 35G. DeğirmenciG
- 7M. UçarD
- 4S. GülerD
- 3J. TabidzeD
- 22D. RaduD
- 28Mamadi CamaráM
- 61G. SağlamM
- 6C. AkpınarM
- 97T. SeferiF
- 27D. MorenoF
- 9F. HasaniF
- 88M. DulcaM
- 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
- 17M. GöçkanD
- 11E. KemaloğluM
- 99T. SarıarslanF
- 71O. ÇağlayanF
- 18F. ÖzerD
- 77C. ŞenD
- 23A. BurakD
Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
Ümraniyespor
1. Lig
- D1-1away to Bodrum FK1 November 2026
- W4-0Sivasspor24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
Kayserispor
1. Lig
- W6-0Muğlaspor2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Pendikspor25 October 2026
- D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026
What these results say
- Ümraniyespor went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Ümraniyespor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Ümraniyespor had two goals or fewer.
- Kayserispor went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Kayserispor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Ümraniyespor | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
| 2 | Kayserispor | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
- 10 April 2023Kayserispor 3–1 ÜmraniyesporSüper Lig
- 9 October 2022Ümraniyespor 2–2 KayserisporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor
Ümraniyespor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi102
- D. Moreno101
- F. Hasani50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ümraniyespor beat Kayserispor 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Kayserispor at 47% and given a win for Ümraniyespor 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tomislav Glumac 40' for Ümraniyespor, Cebio Soukou (penalty) 74' for Ümraniyespor, Florent Hasani (penalty) 90+2' for Kayserispor. On expected goals it finished 1.49–2.89.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ümraniyespor a 7.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 4.9% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.9%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
For Kayserispor the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 56.4% going in: 60.8% after a win, 54.7% after a draw, 47.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.5%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ümraniyespor v Kayserispor has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 26% / 30% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 25% / 28% / 47%: the biggest move is Kayserispor's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Ümraniyespor win25%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Kayserispor win47%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.