8 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos Super League 1 prediction & result

Allwyn Arena, Athens
Referee: Moschou Dimitrios
Full time2 – 1

Final score: AEK Athens FC 2-1 Levadiakos.

Before kick-off the model made it 72% AEK Athens FC, 19% draw, 9% Levadiakos — fair odds of 1.39, 5.26 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AEK Athens FC at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEK Athens FC98%Draw2%Levadiakos0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽Moses David Cobnanassist: Alexandru Grigoraş Pantea
🔁Spyros Christakopoulosout: Mijat Gaćinović
45'
•Răzvan Marin
47'
⚽Luka Jovic (pen)
51'
⚽Barnabás Vargaassist: Mijat Gaćinović
55'
58'
🔁Adrian Sutout: Panagiotis Symelidis
🔁Petros Mantalosout: Milan Vitális
61'
Mijat Gaćinović
72'
Barnabás Varga
77'
77'
🔁Moses David Cobnanout: Dimitrios Emmanouilidis
78'
🔁Giorgos Nikasout: Juan Bauza
•Răzvan Marin
80'
Răzvan Marin
80'
🔁Luka Jovicout: Kervin Arriaga
82'
•Kervin Arriaga
84'
85'
🔁Giannis Kostiout: Konstantinos Goumas
85'
🔁Jonathan Panzoout: Agustin Urzi
Aboubakary Koita
90+4'
🔁Lovro Majerout: Kaan Kairinen
90+6'
🔁Aboubakary Koitaout: Dereck Kutesa
90+6'

Match stats — AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

69%Possession31%
16Shots7
5On target2
10Corners6
2.62xG0.58

Goals against chances

AEK Athens FC2 from 2.62 xGless than the chances were worth
Levadiakos1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
  • 91A. BrignoliG
  • 57Spyros ChristakopoulosD
  • 2H. MoukoudiD
  • 44Filipe RelvasD
  • 3S. PiliosD
  • 14L. MajerM
  • 20P. MantalosM
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 11A. KoitaM
  • 19B. VargaF
  • 9L. JovićF
Substitutes
  • 16K. ArriagaM
  • 8M. GaćinovićM
  • 76Argyris ArgyriouF
  • 17Dimitrios KaloskamisM
  • 7D. KutesaM
  • 22C. LykogiannisD
  • 15M. TodorskiD
  • 1T. StrakoshaG
  • 21D. VidaD
Coach: M. Nikolić
Levadiakos 5-3-2
  • 55N. EliasiG
  • 14G. ManthatisD
  • 23G. KornezosD
  • 24P. LiagasD
  • 4Jonathan PanzoD
  • 2A. PanteaD
  • 15A. ȘutM
  • 8G. NikasM
  • 18I. KostiM
  • 99M. CobnanF
  • 30Octavian PopescuF
Substitutes
  • 21M. BaldeF
  • 7Juan Francisco BauzaM
  • 17D. EmmanouilidisF
  • 22M. FilonD
  • 20K. GoumasM
  • 66M. NdiayeM
  • 33Lucas AnackerG
  • 27G. RodríguezF
  • 31P. SimelidisM
Coach: I. Charalambous

Form going into AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

AEK Athens FC

Super League 1

  • L0-2away to Panathinaikos1 November 2026
  • W5-0Panetolikos24 October 2026
  • W3-0OFI10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026

Levadiakos

Super League 1

  • W3-0Aris Thessalonikis1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Asteras Tripolis24 October 2026
  • D0-0Volos NFC17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Iraklis 190811 October 2026

What these results say

  • AEK Athens FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AEK Athens FC had three goals or more.
  • Levadiakos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Levadiakos failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Levadiakos kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AEK Athens FC9621236+1720
13Levadiakos10136413-96

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos

  • 22 February 2026AEK Athens FC 4–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 14 September 2025Levadiakos 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 22 December 2024AEK Athens FC 1–1 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 1 September 2024Levadiakos 0–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 13 February 2023AEK Athens FC 3–0 LevadiakosSuper League 1
  • 24 October 2022Levadiakos 0–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1

Leading scorers: AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos

AEK Athens FC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Varga60
  • L. Jović50
  • Zini30

Levadiakos

No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 2–1. The model had made a win for AEK Athens FC its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Moses David Cobnan 26' for Levadiakos, Luka Jovic (penalty) 51' for AEK Athens FC, Barnabás Varga 55' for AEK Athens FC. Sent off: Răzvan Marin (AEK Athens FC) 80'. On expected goals it finished 2.62–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEK Athens FC a 23.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 25.8% after a win, 17.1% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.8%, 2 points higher than before the match.

For Levadiakos the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 41.4% going in: 25.9% after a win, 38.6% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AEK Athens FC v Levadiakos has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 76% / 17% / 7% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 72% / 19% / 9%: the biggest move is AEK Athens FC's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. AEK Athens FC win72%▼ −4
  2. Draw19%▲ +2
  3. Levadiakos win9%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.