Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Olympiakos Piraeus, 28% draw, 23% PAOK — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Olympiakos Piraeus at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. OrtegaG
- 2M. SaliakasD
- 45P. RetsosD
- 5L. PirolaD
- 71N. TiknizyanD
- 19R. FreulerM
- 32S. HezzeM
- 20Jota SilvaM
- 22ChiquinhoM
- 73Joel RocaM
- 99M. MouandilmadjiF
- 17L. BaileyF
- 8Gustavo SáM
- 10Gelson MartinsM
- 7K. FortounisM
- 34A. GonzálezF
- 27M. PedersenD
- 6David CarmoD
- 70S. OnyemaechiD
- 31B. PopovićG
- 41D. MonastirlisG
- 6ElustondoD
- 4P. HatzidiakosD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 13D. GiannoulisD
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 18K. JakićM
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 24S. BanzaF
- 99A. TsiftsisG
- 32G. TaylorD
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 56A. MythouF
- 23T. LouchetM
- 78G. KosidisD
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 2M. CamaraM
- 97D. BataoulasD
Form going into Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1
- W3-2away to Kifisia31 October 2026
- W5-0Kalamata25 October 2026
- W2-0away to Panetolikos18 October 2026
- W1-0Panathinaikos11 October 2026
PAOK
Super League 1
- W2-1Asteras Tripolis1 November 2026
- L1-2away to OFI25 October 2026
- W2-1Iraklis 190818 October 2026
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
What these results say
- Olympiakos Piraeus won every one of these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Olympiakos Piraeus kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- PAOK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- PAOK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 23 |
| 4 | PAOK | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK
- 10 May 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 PAOKSuper League 1
- 3 May 2026PAOK 3–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 8 March 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 14 January 2026Olympiakos Piraeus 0–2 PAOKCup
- 5 October 2025PAOK 2–1 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 4 May 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 4–2 PAOKSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK
Olympiakos Piraeus
GoalsAssists
- Jota Silva51
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ndiaye40
- A. Živković35
- D. Pelkas30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Armando González 58' for Olympiakos Piraeus, Andrija Živković 71' for PAOK. On expected goals it finished 1.80–1.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olympiakos Piraeus a 19.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 24.0% after a win, 16.3% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.3%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
For PAOK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 78.4% going in: 87.3% after a win, 79.6% after a draw, 74.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 79.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Olympiakos Piraeus v PAOK has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Olympiakos Piraeus's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Olympiakos Piraeus win49%▲ +8
- Draw28%▼ −2
- PAOK win23%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.