8 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos Super League 1 prediction & result

Kaftanzoglio Stadium, Thessaloniki
Referee: Angelos Evangelou
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Iraklis 1908 1-2 Panathinaikos.

Before kick-off the model made it 19% Iraklis 1908, 28% draw, 53% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 5.26, 3.57 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Panathinaikos at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iraklis 19082%Draw93%Panathinaikos5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Davide Calabria
⚽Pedro Marquesassist: Praxitelis Vouros
17'
25'
Etiene Camara
Vassilis Sourlis
27'
45'
🔁Etiene Camaraout: Levi García
45'
🔁Anass Salah-Eddineout: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
56'
⚽Cyriel Dessersassist: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
🔁Vassilis Sourlisout: Jakub Hromada
59'
🔁Carles Soriaout: Sofian Chakla
60'
61'
Santino Andino
🔁Xande Silvaout: Edgar Yoel Bárcenas
68'
76'
🔁Santino Andinoout: Triantafyllos Tsapras
76'
🔁Andrews Tettehout: S. Kontouris
Yohan Roche
77'
78'
S. Kontouris
🔁Ivi Lópezout: Rob Nizet
84'
🔁Pedro Marquesout: Adam Žulevič
84'
84'
🔁Cyriel Dessersout: Elmin Rastoder
87'
Stefan de Vrij
Edgar Yoel Bárcenas
90'
90+2'
•Vicente Taborda
90+4'
⚽Davide Calabria (pen)
Sofian Chakla
90+4'

Match stats — Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos

34%Possession66%
9Shots14
3On target4
1Corners4
1.13xG2.6

Goals against chances

Iraklis 19081 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth
Panathinaikos2 from 2.60 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Iraklis 1908 3-4-2-1
  • 33G. AthanasiadisG
  • 2P. VourosD
  • 21PiñaD
  • 69Y. RocheD
  • 30Carles SoriaM
  • 90V. SourlisM
  • 27M. KrainzM
  • 31NanuM
  • 11Ivi LópezM
  • 12Xande SilvaM
  • 43Pedro MarquesF
Substitutes
  • 10Y. BárcenasM
  • 17Nikolaos AnastasiadisM
  • 3Vitor MeerD
  • 97A. ŽulevičF
  • 14J. HromadaM
  • 22K. KaïbouéD
  • 7E. KoljićF
  • 4S. ChaklaD
  • 18R. NizetD
Coach: W. Mazzarri
Panathinaikos 4-2-3-1
  • 1Iñaki PeñaG
  • 2D. CalabriaD
  • 6S. de VrijD
  • 55R. van DrongelenD
  • 5A. Salah-EddineD
  • 22E. CamaraM
  • 26I. LouzaM
  • 20V. TabordaM
  • 7A. TettehM
  • 10Santino AndinoM
  • 9C. DessersF
Substitutes
  • 12L. ChavesG
  • 4Pedro ChirivellaM
  • 99L. GarcíaF
  • 8Adriano JagušićM
  • 3Georgios Marios KatrisD
  • 18S. KontourisM
  • 70K. KotsarisG
  • 77G. KiriakopoulosD
  • 14E. Palmer-BrownD
Coach: Jacob Neestrup

Form going into Iraklis 1908 vs Panathinaikos

Iraklis 1908

Super League 1

  • D1-1away to Kalamata2 November 2026
  • L2-3Kifisia24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to PAOK18 October 2026
  • W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026

Panathinaikos

Super League 1

  • W2-0AEK Athens FC1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Volos NFC25 October 2026
  • W5-1Asteras Tripolis18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Iraklis 1908 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Iraklis 1908 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Iraklis 1908 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Panathinaikos won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Panathinaikos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Panathinaikos had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Iraklis 1908102441114-310
1Panathinaikos10901225+1727

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Iraklis 1908 and Panathinaikos

Iraklis 1908

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Marques31

Panathinaikos

GoalsAssists

  • A. Tetteh51
  • C. Dessers40
  • V. Taborda31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Panathinaikos won 2–1 at Iraklis 1908. The model had made a win for Panathinaikos its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Pedro Marques 17' for Iraklis 1908, Cyriel Dessers 56' for Panathinaikos, Davide Calabria (penalty) 90+4' for Panathinaikos. On expected goals it finished 1.13–2.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Iraklis 1908 a 11.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.5% after a win, 9.2% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.8%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Panathinaikos the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 53.6% going in: 58.9% after a win, 48.5% after a draw, 42.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.9%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.