Bayern München vs Arsenal UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bayern München, 26% draw, 28% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayern München vs Arsenal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. NeuerG
- 27K. LaimerD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 44J. StanišićD
- 8T. BischofM
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 7S. GnabryM
- 34I. SaibariM
- 19A. DaviesM
- 9H. KaneF
- 39Bara NdiayeM
- 23S. BoeyD
- 46T. BinderM
- 42L. KarlM
- 21H. ItoD
- 4J. TahD
- 14L. DíazF
- 26S. UlreichG
- 40J. UrbigG
- 1David RayaG
- 12J. TimberD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 41D. RiceM
- 7B. SakaF
- 29K. HavertzF
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 56M. DowmanF
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 30I. MeslierG
- 3Cristhian MosqueraD
- 4B. WhiteD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
Form going into Bayern München vs Arsenal
Bayern München
UEFA Champions League
- D3-3away to Viking13 October 2026
- W5-0Bodo/Glimt10 September 2026
Arsenal
UEFA Champions League
- W3-0Lille13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bayern München | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs Arsenal
- 26 November 2025Arsenal 3–1 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
- 17 April 2024Bayern Munich 1–0 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- 9 April 2024Arsenal 2–2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- 18 July 2019Arsenal 2–1 Bayern MunichInternational Champions Cup
- 19 July 2017Bayern Munich 1–1 ArsenalInternational Champions Cup
- 7 March 2017Arsenal 1–5 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Bayern München and Arsenal
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- H. Kane43
Arsenal
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bayern München and Arsenal drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayern München at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Eberechi Eze 25' for Arsenal, Alphonso Davies 35' for Bayern München, Harry Kane (penalty) 61' for Bayern München, Declan Rice 82' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 2.50–1.71.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.