Como vs Manchester United UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Como 4-1 Manchester United.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Como, 24% draw, 26% Manchester United — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs Manchester United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 2M. KempfD
- 3Álex ValleD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 6Luis MillaM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 10N. PazM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 21S. RicciM
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 16KaikiD
- 12Lorenzo Luigi GinelliG
- 13A. DossenaD
- 8M. CaqueretM
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 4M. de LigtD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 7M. MountM
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 10Matheus CunhaM
- 8Bruno FernandesF
- 16A. DialloF
- 41H. AmassD
- 57Daniel ArmerD
- 20C. BalebaM
- 12K. DarlowG
- 38J. FletcherM
- 39T. FletcherM
- 22T. HeatonG
- 56J. KamasonD
Form going into Como vs Manchester United
Como
UEFA Champions League
- L2-3away to Feyenoord14 October 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
Manchester United
UEFA Champions League
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid13 October 2026
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Como | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Como and Manchester United
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas61
- N. Paz35
Manchester United
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como beat Manchester United 4–1. The model had made a win for Como its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nico Paz 2' for Como, Anastasios Douvikas 49' for Como, Nico Paz 57' for Como, Jacobo Ramón 76' for Como, Joshua Zirkzee 90+1' for Manchester United. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.11.
How the call on Como v Manchester United has moved
First published on 7 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 50% / 24% / 26%: the biggest move is Como's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Como win50%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Manchester United win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.