Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Asyut Petrol 0-1 Zamalek SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Asyut Petrol, 32% draw, 49% Zamalek SC — fair odds of 5.26, 3.13 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Zamalek SC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Amgad YoussefG
- 30Abdelrahman MedhatD
- 6Ahmed MagdyD
- 20A. ShokryD
- 24Mahmoud AlaaD
- 7Ahmed YounesD
- 19I. AbbasM
- 18Mohamed HeshaM
- 26A. R. Al KhamisiM
- 35C. C. BodneF
- 9M. EidF
- 5Mahmoud AlaaD
- 21F. Abu BakrM
- 11Mostafa SadafaF
- 34K. Abdel AalD
- 8Fathy GamalF
- 13Ismail AshrafF
- 25A. AhmedG
- 32Karim KamelM
- 99Mohamed AwadG
- 4Omar GaberD
- 28Mahmoud Hamdi El WenshD
- 20Mostafa El ZenaryD
- 13Ahmed Abou El FotouhD
- 17Mohamed ShehataM
- 6Mahmoud GehadM
- 11Ahmed EshoM
- 55M. HamadM
- 31Ahmed SherifM
- 81Chico BanzaF
- 19Abdalla El SaidM
- 98Oday DabbaghF
- 7Hossam AshrafF
- 58M. FaragD
- 5Ahmed HossamD
- 37Al Mahdi SolimanG
- 21A. JafeliF
- 24Mohamed IsmailD
- 44Youssef WaelM
Form going into Asyut Petrol vs Zamalek SC
Asyut Petrol
Premier League
- W2-1away to Abu Qair Semad13 October 2026
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
Zamalek SC
Premier League
- L0-2Al Ahly11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ghazl El Mehalla16 September 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Asyut Petrol and Zamalek SC
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Zamalek SC
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Sherif30
- Chico Banza21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zamalek SC won 1–0 at Asyut Petrol. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Zamalek SC at 49%. The goal: Ahmed Sherif 26' for Zamalek SC. On expected goals it finished 1.01–1.36.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Asyut Petrol a 36.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.0% after a win, 33.7% after a draw, 42.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.5%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.
For Zamalek SC the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 85.8% going in: 90.9% after a win, 83.5% after a draw, 76.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 90.9%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.