20 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt Premier League prediction & result

Petrosport Stadium, Cairo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Wadi Degla 1-1 National Bank of Egypt.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Wadi Degla, 29% draw, 33% National Bank of Egypt — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wadi Degla at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wadi Degla3%Draw93%National Bank of Egypt4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ahmed Ayman
5'
12'
Mahmoud El Gazzar
⚽Omar Adly
15'
Seif Teka
17'
🔁Hamza Hassanout: Ahmed Abdin
30'
43'
🔁Karim Hamedout: Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama
43'
🔁Hisham Salehout: Mohamed Ashraf Ben Sharqi
🔁Ziad Osama Zizoout: Ahmed Refaat
45'
52'
Mohamed Naser
52'
🔁Mahmoud El Gazzarout: Mostafa Dowidar
52'
🔁Mohamed Naserout: Yaw Annor
56'
⚽Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama
🔁Mohamed Saidout: Youssef Oya
60'
🔁Ahmed Scholesout: Adel Mahmoud
82'
🔁Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasiout: Islam Adel
82'
87'
🔁Mostafa Shalabyout: Ahmed Amin Aoufa

Match stats — Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt

35%Possession65%
8Shots21
1On target11
3Corners4
0.57xG2

Goals against chances

Wadi Degla1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
National Bank of Egypt1 from 2.00 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wadi Degla 4-4-2
  • 1Amr HossamG
  • 23Ahmed AymanD
  • 28S. TekaD
  • 3Omar AdlyD
  • 21Ahmed RedaD
  • 17H. HassanM
  • 25Ibrahim El BahnasiM
  • 8Ahmed ScholesM
  • 20Mohamed JuhaynaM
  • 10Mahmoud DiastyF
  • 22ZizoF
Substitutes
  • 40Ahmed AbdinD
  • 99abdelrahman abdelazizG
  • 19A. MahmoudD
  • 4Islam Adel KanuM
  • 9F. BoliF
  • 34M. KaandorpM
  • 7Youssef OyaF
  • 27Ahmed RefaatF
  • 15Yehia Mostafa Mohamed AbbasD
Coach: Mostafa Shebeita
National Bank of Egypt 4-1-4-1
  • 27Abdel Aziz El BaloutiG
  • 6Mahmoud El GazzarD
  • 20Amir MedhatD
  • 33Dao CyrilleD
  • 12Ahmed MetebD
  • 17Mohamed NaserM
  • 7Hisham SalehM
  • 14Ali HamdyM
  • 11Mostafa ShalabyM
  • 18K. HamedM
  • 29Ahmed Yasser RayanF
Substitutes
  • 1Ahmed Sobhi AfifiG
  • 23Ahmed Amin AoufaF
  • 30Y. AnnorF
  • 25Mohamed AshrafM
  • 19S. BouchamaM
  • 24Mostafa AdelM
  • 13Khaled ShefoD
  • 10Sayed Abdallah SikaF
  • 70Mohamed RedaF
Coach: Ayman Al Ramadi

Form going into Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt

Wadi Degla

Premier League

  • D2-2away to Petrojet13 October 2026
  • L0-2El Mokawloon15 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026

National Bank of Egypt

Premier League

  • W3-0El Geish13 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
  • W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wadi Degla8143810-27
8National Bank of Egypt832399011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wadi Degla vs National Bank of Egypt

  • 18 April 2026Wadi Degla 2–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 5 January 2026National Bank of Egypt 2–2 Wadi DeglaLeague Cup
  • 24 September 2025National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League
  • 7 April 2021Wadi Degla 4–2 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
  • 11 February 2021Wadi Degla 3–1 National Bank of EgyptCup
  • 12 December 2020National Bank of Egypt 1–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League

The result against the call

Wadi Degla and National Bank of Egypt drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wadi Degla at 38% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Omar Adly 15' for Wadi Degla, Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama 56' for National Bank of Egypt. Sent off: Seif Teka (Wadi Degla) 17'. On expected goals it finished 0.57–2.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wadi Degla a 14.6% chance to finish in the top six: 20.8% after a win, 11.8% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.8%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

For National Bank of Egypt the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 22.3% going in: 31.5% after a win, 20.6% after a draw, 15.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.6%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wadi Degla v National Bank of Egypt has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is National Bank of Egypt's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Wadi Degla win38%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. National Bank of Egypt win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.