23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Atalanta, 20% draw, 20% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atalanta at 60% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atalanta96%Draw4%Sassuolo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Raspadoriassist: G. Gaetano
6'
55'
⚽C. Odenthal
🔁M. Pasalicout: L. Samardzic
60'
🔁N. Zalewskiout: C. De Ketelaere
60'
🔁G. Scamaccaout: N. Krstovic
60'
64'
🔁V. Adzicout: K. Thorstvedt
⚽N. Krstovic
65'
🔁L. Bernasconiout: S. Kolasinac
71'
74'
🔁T. Macchioniout: F. Leysen
74'
🔁N. Maticout: B. Dominguez
🔁G. Raspadoriout: E. Elmas
82'
88'
🔁C. Volpatoout: R. Ciervo
88'
🔁K. Bowieout: G. Kulla

Match stats — Atalanta vs Sassuolo

56%Possession44%
14Shots22
7On target8
4Corners4
0.71xG2.73

Goals against chances

Atalanta2 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sassuolo1 from 2.73 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atalanta 4-3-3
  • 29M. CarnesecchiG
  • 77D. ZappacostaD
  • 3O. KossounouD
  • 42G. ScalviniD
  • 47L. BernasconiD
  • 8M. PasalicM
  • 70G. GaetanoM
  • 13EdersonM
  • 59N. ZalewskiF
  • 9G. ScamaccaF
  • 18G. RaspadoriF
Substitutes
  • 57M. SportielloG
  • 95P. VismaraG
  • 23S. KolasinacD
  • 40R. ObricD
  • 16R. BellanovaD
  • 99E. ElmasM
  • 6I. SulemanaM
  • 15M. De RoonM
  • 10L. SamardzicM
Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Sassuolo 4-3-3
  • 49A. MuricG
  • 46S. CinquegranoD
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 31T. MacchioniD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 17V. AdzicM
  • 18N. MaticM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 7C. VolpatoF
  • 9K. BowieF
  • 45A. LaurienteF
Substitutes
  • 80S. TuratiG
  • 21J. IdzesD
  • 16F. LeysenD
  • 2F. MissoriD
  • 23A. Di BitontoD
  • 33R. ObradorD
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
Coach: Alberto Aquilani

Form going into Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Atalanta

  • D0-0Hapoel Tel Aviv20 August 2026

Sassuolo

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Atalanta42025506
9Sassuolo421187+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Sassuolo

  • 23 August 2026Atalanta 2–1 SassuoloSerie A
  • 1 March 2026Sassuolo 2–1 AtalantaSerie A
  • 9 November 2025Atalanta 0–3 SassuoloSerie A
  • 17 February 2024Atalanta 3–0 SassuoloSerie A
  • 3 January 2024Atalanta 3–1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
  • 20 August 2023Sassuolo 0–2 AtalantaSerie A

Leading scorers: Atalanta and Sassuolo

Atalanta

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Sassuolo

  • Vasilije Adžić2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.