23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Frosinone vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Frosinone 0-1 Juventus.

Before kick-off the model made it 15% Frosinone, 18% draw, 67% Juventus — fair odds of 6.67, 5.56 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Juventus at 67% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Frosinone0%Draw3%Juventus97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Bremerassist: F. Conceicao
Romano Schmid
43'
50'
Zeki Çelik
🔁R. Schmidout: P. Masini
59'
🔁S. Finiout: A. Zerbin
59'
🔁I. Monterisiout: A. Oyono
67'
🔁M. Cichellaout: L. Hasa
67'
69'
🔁Z. Celikout: A. Cambiaso
69'
🔁K. Yildizout: J. Boga
69'
🔁F. Conceicaoout: E. Zhegrova
🔁G. Bracagliaout: A. Terzic
76'
79'
🔁Douglas Luizout: T. Koopmeiners
81'
Andrea Cambiaso
Gabriele Calvani
90+3'
90+1'
🔁G. Vicarioout: M. Perin

Match stats — Frosinone vs Juventus

37%Possession63%
11Shots20
2On target5
3Corners12
0.45xG1.99

Goals against chances

Frosinone0 from 0.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juventus1 from 1.99 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Frosinone 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. PalmisaniG
  • 30I. MonterisiD
  • 3G. CalvaniD
  • 2G. CittadiniD
  • 79G. BracagliaD
  • 14G. CaloM
  • 16M. CichellaM
  • 40S. FiniM
  • 10R. SchmidM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 9A. RaimondoF
Substitutes
  • 12M. PisseriG
  • 91S. DesplanchesG
  • 71A. TerzicD
  • 20A. OyonoD
  • 25K. AkpogumaD
  • 34A. El AzzouziM
  • 5W. AmeyD
  • 27F. GrillitschM
  • 8I. KoutsoupiasM
Coach: Massimiliano Alvini
Juventus 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. VicarioG
  • 15P. KaluluD
  • 3BremerD
  • 6L. KellyD
  • 2Z. CelikD
  • 5M. LocatelliM
  • 12Douglas LuizM
  • 7F. ConceicaoM
  • 22W. McKennieM
  • 10K. YildizM
  • 9R. Kolo MuaniF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerinG
  • 23C. PinsoglioG
  • 26J. LucumiD
  • 20A. CambiasoD
  • 24D. RuganiD
  • 32J. CabalD
  • 21F. MirettiM
  • 8T. KoopmeinersM
  • 19K. ThuramM
Coach: Luciano Spalletti

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Frosinone421174+37
8Juventus421164+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Juventus

  • 23 August 2026Frosinone 0–1 JuventusSerie A
  • 25 February 2024Juventus 3–2 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 11 January 2024Juventus 4–0 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
  • 23 December 2023Frosinone 1–2 JuventusSerie A
  • 15 February 2019Juventus 3–0 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 23 September 2018Frosinone 0–2 JuventusSerie A

Leading scorers: Frosinone and Juventus

Frosinone

  • A. Raimondo4 goals
  • G. Kvernadze2 goals1 assists

Juventus

  • E. Zhegrova2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.