Oviedo vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 0-1 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Oviedo, 20% draw, 10% Leganes — fair odds of 1.43, 5.00 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 70% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Leganes
Line-ups
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 4David CostasD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 3Juan CruzD
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 5Youness LachhabM
- 20Pablo SáenzM
- 6Daniel VillahermosaM
- 11Jacobo GonzálezM
- 9Chris RamosF
- 2Aisar AhmedM
- 15Samu RodríguezD
- 24Alexandru IșfanF
- 1Miguel NarvaezG
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 28Diego MenendezM
- 32Enzo PérezM
- 14Carlos FernándezF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 2MarvelD
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 10Zico BuurmeesterD
- 6Lalo AguilarM
- 11Naim GarcíaM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 23Álvaro TejeroM
- 17Ismael GharbiF
- 8Yassine KechtaF
- 19Patrick SokoF
- 13Luca ZidaneG
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 31Nico LozanoG
- 28Beltrán Auguste PaolucciD
- 29David HamansenyaD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 7Rubén PeñaD
- 21Andrés CamposF
Form going into Oviedo vs Leganes
Oviedo
- D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026
Leganes
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Oviedo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
| 12 | Leganes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Leganes
- 9 August 2025Leganes 0–0 OviedoFriendlies Clubs
- 9 August 2024Leganes 2–1 OviedoFriendlies Clubs
- 27 January 2024Oviedo 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 7 October 2023Leganes 0–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 18 March 2023Leganes 0–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 21 August 2022Oviedo 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Leganes
Oviedo
- Pablo Sáenz2 goals
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.