Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Atletico Madrid, 19% draw, 23% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.72, 5.26 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Jan OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 17Dávid HanckoD
- 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
- 20Giuliano SimeoneM
- 6KokeM
- 23Morten HjulmandM
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 11Ademola LookmanF
- 7Kang-in LeeF
- 10Alex BaenaM
- 1Juan MussoG
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 2José María GiménezD
- 30Dani MartinezD
- 27Jorge DomínguezD
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 5Johnny CardosoM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 1Luiz JúniorG
- 15Santiago MouriñoD
- 8Juan FoythD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19Nicolas PépéM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 18Pape GueyeM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 9Georges MikautadzeF
- 17Tajon BuchananF
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 25Péter GulácsiG
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 3Alexander FreemanD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 2Logan CostaD
- 30Cheikh Tidiane ThiamM
- 27Nizar El JmiliF
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Villarreal
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
- 23 August 2026Atletico Madrid 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 24 May 2026Villarreal 5–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 13 September 2025Atletico Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 25 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 August 2024Villarreal 2–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 1 April 2024Villarreal 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
- G. Simeone2 goals1 assists
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.