22 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Valencia vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result

Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Valencia 0-0 Celta Vigo.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Valencia, 17% draw, 19% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 1.56, 5.88 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Valencia at 64% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Valencia8%Draw88%Celta Vigo4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Justin De Haas
38'
Stole Dimitrievski
39'
🔁J. De Haasout: M. Diakhaby
46'
57'
Sergio Carreira
🔁R. Satoout: U. Sadiq
57'
57'
🔁H. Alvarezout: W. Swedberg
64'
🔁J. El Abdellaouiout: J. Rueda
64'
🔁J. Galanout: I. Aspas
64'
🔁F. Jutglaout: P. Duran
67'
Javier Rueda
🔁J. Gayaout: P. Maffeo
69'
🔁F. Ugrinicout: A. Dieng
69'
77'
🔁A. Febasout: I. Moriba
80'
Ionuț Radu
🔁A. Danjumaout: H. Duro
83'

Match stats — Valencia vs Celta Vigo

44%Possession56%
8Shots7
2On target3
1Corners2
0.58xG0.66

Goals against chances

Valencia0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Celta Vigo0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Valencia 5-4-1
  • 1S. DimitrievskiG
  • 21J. VazquezD
  • 5C. TarregaD
  • 18PepeluD
  • 12J. De HaasD
  • 14J. GayaD
  • 39R. SatoM
  • 23F. UgrinicM
  • 2G. RodriguezM
  • 8J. GuerraM
  • 7A. DanjumaF
Substitutes
  • 13C. RiveroG
  • 24P. MaffeoD
  • 4M. DiakhabyD
  • 41M. NavarroD
  • 36I. CordobaD
  • 15A. DiengM
  • 10A. AlmeidaM
  • 38J. DuraM
  • 6U. SadiqF
Coach: Carlos Corberan
Celta Vigo 3-4-3
  • 13I. RaduG
  • 20J. RodriguezD
  • 29Y. LagoD
  • 3M. AlonsoD
  • 5S. CarreiraM
  • 8M. RomanM
  • 14A. FebasM
  • 22J. GalanM
  • 39J. El AbdellaouiF
  • 9F. JutglaF
  • 23H. AlvarezF
Substitutes
  • 1A. BayindirG
  • 2C. StarfeltD
  • 17J. RuedaD
  • 15A. NunezD
  • 4A. FayeD
  • 6I. MoribaM
  • 30H. BurcioM
  • 16H. GonzalezM
  • 19W. SwedbergM
Coach: Claudio Giraldez

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Valencia6114210-84
16Celta Vigo604236-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Valencia vs Celta Vigo

  • 22 August 2026Valencia 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 5 April 2026Valencia 2–3 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 3 January 2026Celta Vigo 4–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 2 February 2025Valencia 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
  • 23 August 2024Celta Vigo 3–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 26 May 2024Celta Vigo 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.