22 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Espanyol vs Real Madrid La Liga prediction & result

RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Espanyol 1-2 Real Madrid.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Espanyol, 22% draw, 48% Real Madrid — fair odds of 3.33, 4.55 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Madrid at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Espanyol4%Draw90%Real Madrid6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽J. Bellinghamassist: A. Guler
⚽A. Calatravaassist: J. Hernandez
30'
Álex Calatrava
32'
32'
Vinícius Júnior
64'
🔁A. Carrerasout: M. Cucurella
64'
🔁A. Gulerout: Y. Diomande
🔁C. Riedelout: V. Drkusic
66'
🔁A. Calatravaout: R. Bauza
66'
🔁U. Gonzalezout: P. Lozano
75'
🔁J. Hernandezout: P. Milla
75'
80'
🔁D. Dumfriesout: T. Alexander-Arnold
80'
🔁B. Silvaout: E. Camavinga
80'
🔁J. Bellinghamout: C. Espi
🔁Expositoout: Jofre
88'
90'
⚽C. Espi

Match stats — Espanyol vs Real Madrid

35%Possession65%
5Shots6
2On target5
0.48xG0.26

Goals against chances

Espanyol1 from 0.48 xGmore than the chances were worth
Real Madrid2 from 0.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Espanyol 4-4-2
  • 13M. DmitrovicG
  • 23O. El HilaliD
  • 5C. RiedelD
  • 14U. NunezD
  • 21R. HinojoD
  • 22A. CalatravaM
  • 4U. GonzalezM
  • 8ExpositoM
  • 24T. DolanM
  • 9R. Fernandez JaenF
  • 28J. HernandezF
Substitutes
  • 1A. FortunoG
  • 31L. SerredG
  • 16V. DrkusicD
  • 3Q. HartmanD
  • 32J. A. LopezD
  • 10P. LozanoM
  • 20Gabriel MoscardoM
  • 26R. BauzaM
  • 11P. MillaM
Coach: Manolo Gonzalez
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. CourtoisG
  • 24D. DumfriesD
  • 16I. KonateD
  • 4D. HuijsenD
  • 18A. CarrerasD
  • 20B. SilvaM
  • 8F. ValverdeM
  • 15A. GulerM
  • 5J. BellinghamM
  • 7Vinicius JuniorM
  • 10K. MbappeF
Substitutes
  • 13A. LuninG
  • 26S. MestreG
  • 22A. RudigerD
  • 33M. RivasD
  • 17M. CucurellaD
  • 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 21B. DiazM
  • 29J. Cestero SanchoM
Coach: Jose Mourinho

Form going into Espanyol vs Real Madrid

Espanyol

  • W3-0Levante16 August 2026

Real Madrid

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Espanyol621397+27
2Real Madrid6501176+1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Espanyol vs Real Madrid

  • 22 August 2026Espanyol 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 3 May 2026Espanyol 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 20 September 2025Real Madrid 2–0 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 1 February 2025Espanyol 1–0 Real MadridLa Liga
  • 21 September 2024Real Madrid 4–1 EspanyolLa Liga
  • 11 March 2023Real Madrid 3–1 EspanyolLa Liga

Leading scorers: Espanyol and Real Madrid

Espanyol

  • Roberto Fernández6 goals

Real Madrid

  • Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
  • J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.