6 September 2026, 03:00 UTC

Atlas vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Atlas 1-1 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atlas, 30% draw, 28% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atlas at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlas4%Draw93%Atlante FC3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽L. Esteves
7'
14'
Eugenio Pizzuto
32'
•Luis Puente
35'
⚽Jhojan Julio (pen)
46'
🔁A. Escobarout: M. Fernandez
48'
⚽Martin Sarrafiore
51'
•Jhojan Julio
🔁R. Mmaeeout: S. Hernandez
57'
🔁J. Rodriguezout: M. Valenzuela
58'
70'
🔁A. Quirosout: D. O. Bagui Tobar
70'
🔁L. Puenteout: J. Moxica
75'
Eduardo Tercero
Aldo Rocha
77'
80'
Joaquín Alejandro Moxica Chapa
🔁A. Gonzalezout: J. Serrato
81'
Rodrigo Schlegel
86'
🔁A. Rochaout: P. Ramirez
87'
90'
🔁W. Portalesout: J. N. Carrera
90+3'
🔁C. Alfaroout: G. Adame

Match stats — Atlas vs Atlante FC

64%Possession36%
16Shots9
3On target2
3Corners1

Line-ups

Atlas 5-3-2
  • 12C. VargasG
  • 3J. SanchezD
  • 19A. FriasD
  • 28M. CapassoD
  • 21R. SchlegelD
  • 5J. RodriguezD
  • 58A. GonzalezM
  • 26A. RochaM
  • 10L. EstevesM
  • 9F. MonzonF
  • 8R. MmaeeF
Substitutes
  • 22A. SanchezG
  • 16M. ValenzuelaD
  • 4A. MoraD
  • 13G. AguirreD
  • 15P. RamirezD
  • 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
  • 192J. SerratoM
  • 23S. HernandezM
  • 203J. MartinF
Coach: Hernan Crespo
Atlante FC 5-3-2
  • 1O. JimenezG
  • 29W. PortalesD
  • 14C. AlfaroD
  • 4E. TerceroD
  • 44A. QuirosD
  • 27A. EscobarD
  • 30Martin SarrafioreM
  • 8E. PizzutoM
  • 19L. CalzadillaM
  • 7Jhojan JulioF
  • 9L. PuenteF
Substitutes
  • 33Garcia JordanG
  • 6J. N. CarreraD
  • 32D. O. Bagui TobarD
  • 18C. BermudezM
  • 37W. ClarD
  • 25M. FernandezM
  • 15J. CharcopaF
  • 20G. AdameM
  • 11J. MoxicaF
Coach: Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Form going into Atlas vs Atlante FC

Atlas

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
  • W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
  • L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026

Atlante FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Leon29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
  • D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
  • D1-1Club America25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Atlas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Atlas168352730-327
16Atlante FC163581626-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Atlas and Atlante FC

Atlas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Monzón51

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlas and Atlante FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlas at 42% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: L. Esteves 7' for Atlas, Martin Sarrafiore 48' for Atlante FC.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.