6 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 30% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Plovdiv96%Draw4%Cherno More Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Leijtenassist: P. Umarbaev
21'
46'
🔁M. Barandasout: A. Kolev
Sevi Idriz
55'
68'
Aleksandar Kolev
70'
🔁E. Nyagolovout: Joao Bandaro
70'
🔁I. Tasevout: I. Bounaas
Todor Pavlov
71'
🔁R. Leijtenout: D. Ali
77'
🔁P. Umarbaevout: M. Trdan
77'
83'
🔁D. Telesout: J. Padilla
83'
🔁V. Panayotovout: P. Andreev
Lucas Ryan
87'
87'
Celso Sidney
🔁I. Ivanovout: A. Velev
89'
🔁M. Petrovicout: A. Chindris
89'
90+1'
Asen Donchev

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 5T. PavlovD
  • 2A. CovaD
  • 12E. AliM
  • 22I. IvanovM
  • 44M. PetrovicD
  • 39P. UmarbaevM
  • 29C. LongvilleF
  • 7S. IdrizM
Substitutes
  • 40P. ZovkoG
  • 9A. VelevF
  • 4A. ChindrisD
  • 3D. Ali
  • 99J. Lamy
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 30A. AleksandrovM
  • 10Y. DzhelepovF
  • 19D. KirashkiD
Coach: Dusan Kosic
Cherno More Varna 3-4-1-2
  • 81K. TomovG
  • 13E. NyagolovD
  • 37V. KerchevD
  • 8A. DonchevD
  • 7M. BarandasF
  • 71V. PanayotovM
  • 11M. AchiM
  • 3Z. AtanasovD
  • 24D. TelesM
  • 17I. Tasev
  • 10C. SidneyF
Substitutes
  • 31D. HristovG
  • 20A. Kolev
  • 14A. TodorovM
  • 29B. BeyhanM
  • 26Joao BandaroD
  • 22N. KostadinovM
  • 50E. TombakD
  • 99I. Bounaas
  • 9J. PadillaF
Coach: Ilian Iliev

Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
  • L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
  • L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026

Cherno More Varna

  • L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv9207412-86
12Cherno More Varna91261019-95

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

  • 6 September 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 12 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 26 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 15 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 23 August 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 8 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.