6 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Cherno More Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 30% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Plovdiv96%Draw4%Cherno More Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Leijtenassist: P. Umarbaev
21'
46'
🔁M. Barandasout: A. Kolev
Sevi Idriz
55'
68'
Aleksandar Kolev
70'
🔁E. Nyagolovout: Joao Bandaro
70'
🔁I. Tasevout: I. Bounaas
Todor Pavlov
71'
🔁R. Leijtenout: D. Ali
77'
🔁P. Umarbaevout: M. Trdan
77'
83'
🔁D. Telesout: J. Padilla
83'
🔁V. Panayotovout: P. Andreev
Lucas Ryan
87'
87'
Celso Sidney
🔁I. Ivanovout: A. Velev
89'
🔁M. Petrovicout: A. Chindris
89'
90+1'
Asen Donchev

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 5T. PavlovD
  • 2A. CovaD
  • 12E. AliM
  • 22I. IvanovM
  • 44M. PetrovicD
  • 39P. UmarbaevM
  • 29C. LongvilleF
  • 7S. IdrizM
Substitutes
  • 40P. ZovkoG
  • 9A. VelevF
  • 4A. ChindrisD
  • 3D. Ali
  • 99J. Lamy
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 30A. AleksandrovM
  • 10Y. DzhelepovF
  • 19D. KirashkiD
Coach: Dusan Kosic
Cherno More Varna 3-4-1-2
  • 81K. TomovG
  • 13E. NyagolovD
  • 37V. KerchevD
  • 8A. DonchevD
  • 7M. BarandasF
  • 71V. PanayotovM
  • 11M. AchiM
  • 3Z. AtanasovD
  • 24D. TelesM
  • 17I. Tasev
  • 10C. SidneyF
Substitutes
  • 31D. HristovG
  • 20A. Kolev
  • 14A. TodorovM
  • 29B. BeyhanM
  • 26Joao BandaroD
  • 22N. KostadinovM
  • 50E. TombakD
  • 99I. Bounaas
  • 9J. PadillaF
Coach: Ilian Iliev

Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
  • L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
  • L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Levski Sofia7 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026

Cherno More Varna

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
  • L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
  • L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cherno More Varna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338818-1012
9Cherno More Varna143471422-813

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

  • 12 May 2026Cherno More Varna 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 26 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 15 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 23 August 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 8 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League

The result against the call

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Cherno More Varna 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 41%. The goal: R. Leijten 21' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

How the call on Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Cherno More Varna has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv Plovdiv's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Cherno More Varna win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.