Tigres UANL vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Tigres UANL 1-1 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tigres UANL, 28% draw, 27% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
Tigres UANL
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
Necaxa
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Necaxa
Tigres UANL
- J. Brunetta3 goals4 assists
- R. Aguirre3 goals1 assists
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.