6 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Tigres UANL 1-1 Necaxa.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tigres UANL, 28% draw, 27% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tigres UANL at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigres UANL5%Draw92%Necaxa3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Fernando Ordóñez
5'
12'
⚽O. Gonzalez
Ricardo Monreal
19'
21'
Owen González
21'
•Agustin Oliveros
24'
⚽Julián Carranza (pen)
Nahuel Guzmán
25'
🔁F. I. Ordonez Delgadoout: M. Lainez
35'
⚽R. Aguirreassist: J. Brunetta
40'
58'
🔁O. Gonzalezout: K. Rosero
🔁Simeoneout: C. Araujo
59'
🔁R. Monrealout: D. A. Sanchez Guevara
59'
62'
🔁M. Espindolaout: J. P. Torres Patino
65'
Pedro Pedraza
78'
🔁R. Martinezout: A. Pena
79'
🔁L. Faravelliout: D. Leyva
79'
🔁J. Ruizout: E. Rodriguez
🔁D. Lainezout: I. Galvan
90'

Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

58%Possession42%
22Shots16
6On target4
6Corners3

Line-ups

Tigres UANL 4-4-2
  • 1N. GuzmanG
  • 14J. GarzaD
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 15A. FrancoD
  • 26F. I. Ordonez DelgadoD
  • 21R. MonrealM
  • 34SimeoneM
  • 23RomuloM
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 17R. AguirreF
  • 11J. BrunettaF
Substitutes
  • 25F. RodriguezG
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 184I. Aceves
  • 5C. AraujoM
  • 30D. A. Sanchez GuevaraF
  • 200D. RamirezD
  • 6J. VigonM
  • 198I. GalvanM
  • 19M. LainezM
Coach: Manuel Vucetich Rojas Victor
Necaxa 3-4-2-1
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 5NavesD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 13O. GonzalezM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 21M. EspindolaM
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 20F. MendezD
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 7K. RoseroF
  • 90J. ValenciaF
  • 99E. RodriguezM
Coach: Martin Varini

Form going into Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

Tigres UANL

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
  • W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
  • D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026

Necaxa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
  • L1-2Leon18 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
  • W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026

What these results say

  • Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tigres UANL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Necaxa.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tigres UANL163671725-815
17Necaxa163491728-1113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Necaxa

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta94

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tigres UANL and Necaxa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigres UANL at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: O. Gonzalez 12' for Necaxa, R. Aguirre 40' for Tigres UANL.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.