24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Meshakhte vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

Agrano Vachadze Stadium
Referee: G. Machitidze
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Meshakhte 2-1 Dila.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Meshakhte, 28% draw, 49% Dila — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dila at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Meshakhte95%Draw5%Dila0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

beka gabiskiria
15'
27'
⚽Mohamed Kantéassist: Shota Shekiladze
🔁Giorgi Gegiaout: reis rafael
46'
🔁pimentel ericout: giorgi papuashvili
46'
55'
🔁Mouhamed Dioufout: Giorgi Jalaghonia
55'
🔁Georgiy Kobakhidzeout: Aviel Zargari
61'
lasha menteshashvili
⚽beka gabiskiria
66'
68'
🔁lasha menteshashviliout: Kristaps Grabovskis
71'
Mamin Sanyang
⚽Mate Kvirkvia
75'
78'
🔁Nelson Mike Puketiout: Zurab Museliani
79'
🔁Blankson Anoffout: Otar Parulava
80'
Kristaps Grabovskis
Levan Kurdadze
80'
🔁beka gabiskiriaout: maksym pyrohov
83'
Mate Kvirkvia
84'
🔁Beka Shubitidzeout: elzbarovich novruzov
86'
Erekle jijavadze
90+2'
🔁Tsotne·Patsatsiaout: tarik sikalo
90+4'

Match stats — Meshakhte vs Dila

57%Possession43%
14Shots4
7On target3
6Corners4

Line-ups

Meshakhte 5-4-1
  • 1L. TkeshelashviliG
  • 23B. ShubitidzeM
  • 20L. KurdadzeD
  • 31Eric PimentelD
  • 38I. ZotkoD
  • 16G. GegiaD
  • 26B. GabiskiriaD
  • 27G. KantariaM
  • 7E. JijavadzeM
  • 11M. KvirkviaF
  • 18T. PatsatsiaM
Substitutes
  • 22T. ŠikaloM
  • 29L. ShovnadzeG
  • 37reis rafaelF
  • 30M. PyrogovM
  • 6G. PapuashviliM
  • 25R. NovruzovD
  • 36L. KvelaidzeF
  • 8G. JamarauliM
  • 24S. Chkhetiani
Dila 3-4-1-2
  • 1D. KereselidzeG
  • 2T. KikabidzeD
  • 13João AraújoD
  • 5Nelson Mike PuketiD
  • 16M. SanyangF
  • 17B. AnoffM
  • 15G. KobakhidzeM
  • 24Mouhamed DioufD
  • 8L. MenteshashviliM
  • 9K. KefingF
  • 22Shota ShekiladzeF
Substitutes
  • 7Aviel Zargari
  • 25L. YarbroughD
  • 12L. SanikidzeG
  • 10O. ParulavaM
  • 21Z. MuselianiF
  • 14G. JalaghoniaD
  • 11K. GrabovskisF
  • 33R. EtouD
  • 37L. EdhartF
Coach: A. Vavalis

Form going into Meshakhte vs Dila

Meshakhte

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
  • L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026

Dila

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-2FC Iberia 199919 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Rustavi10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Meshakhte32311182553-2820
6Dila32124164141040

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Meshakhte vs Dila

  • 16 August 2026Dila 3–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
  • 10 May 2026Meshakhte 0–2 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 12 March 2026Dila 0–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga

The result against the call

Meshakhte beat Dila 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dila at 49% and given a win for Meshakhte 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mohamed Kanté 27' for Dila, beka gabiskiria 66' for Meshakhte, Mate Kvirkvia 75' for Meshakhte.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dila a 4.0% chance to finish in the top four: 5.8% after a win, 2.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Meshakhte v Dila has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 21% / 28% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 23% / 28% / 49%: the biggest move is Meshakhte's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Meshakhte win23%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Dila win49%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.