24 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC Serie B prediction & result

Campinas
Referee: De Moraes Silva, Matheus
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ponte Preta 2-2 Fortaleza EC.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Ponte Preta, 22% draw, 64% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 7.14, 4.55 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortaleza EC at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ponte Preta2%Draw92%Fortaleza EC6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gustavo Telles
11'
22'
•Chico da Costa
Danilo Barcelos
24'
25'
⚽Maílton (pen)
32'
Maílton
⚽Gustavo Felipe Almeidaassist: Danilo Barcelos
44'
⚽Guilherme Brandão Azevedoassist: Gustavo Telles
45+2'
Felipe Di Mauro
45+4'
57'
🔁Vitor Ferreiraout: Paulo Baya
57'
🔁Pedro Henriqueout: Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
🔁Rodrigo Souzaout: Denis
60'
65'
⚽Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souzaassist: Paulo Baya
65'
🔁Maurício Mucuriout: Lucca Prior Pimenta
🔁Daniloout: LUCAS CUNHA
72'
🔁David da Horaout: Emanuell Silva Ferreira
72'
🔁Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júniorout: Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino
72'
Vinicius Ferrari Andreoli
76'
86'
🔁ronald falkoskiout: Nathan Fogaça
🔁Gustavo Tellesout: Diego Monteiro Leao
90+1'

Match stats — Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC

24%Possession76%
14Shots23
6On target8
4Corners9
0.89xG1.94

Goals against chances

Ponte Preta2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fortaleza EC2 from 1.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ponte Preta 4-2-3-1
  • 30ViniciusG
  • 32Felipe Di MauroD
  • 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
  • 15Gabriel CaranD
  • 14Danilo BarcelosD
  • 5Rodrigo SouzaM
  • 8KarlM
  • 35Gustavo LopesM
  • 18David da HoraM
  • 19DaniloM
  • 9BrandãoF
Substitutes
  • 23Nicolas SilvaM
  • 2Guilherme Martins FerreiraM
  • 4Diego Monteiro LeaoD
  • 17MiguelM
  • 21Vitor Ribeiro FernandesF
  • 6JuanD
  • 16KawannD
  • 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraF
  • 1Guilherme VianaG
Coach: Gilson Kleina
Fortaleza EC 4-2-3-1
  • 1João RicardoG
  • 22MaíltonD
  • 23NerisD
  • 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
  • 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
  • 5PierreM
  • 8RonaldM
  • 11VitinhoM
  • 16Pedro HenriqueM
  • 75RodriguinhoM
  • 91Francisco da CostaF
Substitutes
  • 17Nathan FogaçaF
  • 12Kaio HenriqueD
  • 3Lucas GazalD
  • 29RodrigoM
  • 38LuccaM
  • 77Paulo BayaF
  • 31WellitonF
  • 25Vinícius SilvestreG
  • 19Lucas EmanoelF
Coach: Paulo Autuori

Form going into Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC

Ponte Preta

Serie B

  • D1-1Atletico Goianiense16 October 2026

Fortaleza EC

Serie B

  • W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Ponte Preta3836292181-6015
4Fortaleza EC38171474533+1265

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC

  • 3 July 2026Fortaleza EC 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 26 October 2018Fortaleza EC 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
  • 8 July 2018Ponte Preta 2–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B

Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC

Ponte Preta

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Fortaleza EC

GoalsAssists

  • Maílton103

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortaleza EC at 64% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Maílton (penalty) 25' for Fortaleza EC, Gustavo Felipe Almeida 44' for Ponte Preta, Guilherme Brandão Azevedo 45+2' for Ponte Preta, Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza 65' for Fortaleza EC. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza EC a 32.3% chance to finish in the top two: 38.6% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.8%, 15.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ponte Preta v Fortaleza EC has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 10% / 18% / 72% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 14% / 22% / 64%: the biggest move is Fortaleza EC's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Ponte Preta win14%▲ +4
  2. Draw22%▲ +4
  3. Fortaleza EC win64%▼ −8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.