24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

São Bernardo vs Vila Nova Serie B prediction & result

Estadio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano
Full time3 – 2

Final score: São Bernardo 3-2 Vila Nova.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% São Bernardo, 27% draw, 32% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

São Bernardo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

São Bernardo0%Draw6%Vila Nova94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Jandersonassist: Higor Meritão
⚽Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silvaassist: Fabrício Daniel
6'
49'
⚽Everton Galdino
🔁Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silvaout: Foguinho
57'
59'
Hayner
61'
🔁Marquinhos Gabrielout: Igor Cariús
🔁Fabrício Danielout: Hyoran
65'
🔁Marcão Silvaout: Daniel Amorim
66'
66'
🔁Higor Meritãoout: Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre
66'
🔁André Luísout: Willian Maranhão
🔁Lucas Fernandesout: Breno Ruan Melo Almeida
67'
76'
🔁Everton Galdinoout: Willian Prado Camargo
76'
🔁João Pedro Vieiraout: Nathan Camargo
🔁Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopesout: Daniel Davi Simão Roque
79'
Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque
88'
⚽Rodrigo Ferreira
90+6'
Foguinho
90+9'
90+10'
Igor Cariús
⚽Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque
90+11'

Match stats — São Bernardo vs Vila Nova

65%Possession35%
15Shots13
7On target5
8Corners3
1.55xG1.95

Goals against chances

São Bernardo3 from 1.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
Vila Nova2 from 1.95 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

São Bernardo 5-4-1
  • 1Alex AlvesG
  • 2Rodrigo FerreiraD
  • 77MarcãoD
  • 35JemersonD
  • 90LuizãoD
  • 6ParáD
  • 31Lucas FernandesM
  • 14Lucas LimaM
  • 26EduardoM
  • 29PedrinhoM
  • 10Fabrício DanielF
Substitutes
  • 33Mário SérgioD
  • 89Daniel AmorimF
  • 27EchaporãF
  • 8FoguinhoM
  • 42HyoranM
  • 3HélderD
  • 30BreninhoM
  • 36João Vitor Rodrigues GaldinoM
  • 21Hugo SanchesD
Coach: Vinícius Bergantin
Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
  • 1Helton LeiteG
  • 22HaynerD
  • 23Jonathan CostaD
  • 4Douglas MendesD
  • 6HigorD
  • 5João VieiraM
  • 21Higor MeritãoM
  • 17Everton GaldinoM
  • 10Marquinhos GabrielM
  • 99JandersonM
  • 7André LuísF
Substitutes
  • 14AndersonD
  • 8Willian MaranhãoM
  • 3Tiago PagnussatD
  • 20Nathan CamargoM
  • 9LincolnF
  • 16Igor CariúsD
  • 70Emerson UrsoF
  • 31DodôM
  • 49DellatorreF
Coach: Guto Ferreira

Form going into São Bernardo vs Vila Nova

São Bernardo

Serie B

  • L0-1Criciuma18 October 2026

Vila Nova

Serie B

  • D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11São Bernardo381411135444+1053
3Vila Nova38199105339+1466

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs Vila Nova

  • 6 July 2026Vila Nova 2–1 São BernardoSerie B

Leading scorers: São Bernardo and Vila Nova

São Bernardo

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 54 league goals as a side.

Vila Nova

GoalsAssists

  • Janderson109
  • André Luís92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

São Bernardo beat Vila Nova 3–2. The model had made a win for São Bernardo its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Janderson 2' for Vila Nova, Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 6' for São Bernardo, Everton Galdino 49' for Vila Nova, Rodrigo Ferreira 90+6' for São Bernardo, Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque 90+11' for São Bernardo. Sent off: Hayner (Vila Nova) 59'. On expected goals it finished 1.55–1.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 45.3% chance to finish in the top two: 66.2% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 31.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.4%, 13.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on São Bernardo v Vila Nova has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Vila Nova's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. São Bernardo win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Vila Nova win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.