23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
Referee: Junior Rivera, Peru
Full time1 – 2

Final score: UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% UTC Cajamarca, 26% draw, 51% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FBC Melgar at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UTC Cajamarca0%Draw3%FBC Melgar97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Bernardo Cuestaassist: Walter Tandazo
David Dioses
34'
Manuel Ganoza
34'
45+3'
🔁Bernardo Cuestaout: Jefferson Caceres
45'
🔁Walter Tandazoout: Marcos Portillo
🔁Marlon de Jesúsout: Abdiel Arroyo
45'
🔁Francesco Cavagnaout: Dylan Caro
45'
🔁David Diosesout: Joshua Cantt
61'
64'
Juan Escobar
68'
⚽Nicolas Quagliataassist: Nelson Cabanillas
🔁Luis Arceout: Jhosep Nunez
70'
🔁David Camachoout: Gilmar Paredes
70'
Joshua Cantt
74'
75'
🔁Nicolas Quagliataout: Jesús Alcantar
81'
🔁Johnny Vidalesout: Franco Zanelatto
⚽Luis Garroassist: Adolfo Muñoz
87'
90'
Jesús Alcantar
90+3'
Cristian Bordacahar

Match stats — UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

54%Possession46%
19Shots8
9On target5
4Corners2
1.47xG1.01

Goals against chances

UTC Cajamarca1 from 1.47 xGabout what the chances were worth
FBC Melgar2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. CamposG
  • 17L. GarroD
  • 3M. GanozaD
  • 2B. DuarteD
  • 6F. CavagnaD
  • 8D. DiosesM
  • 88L. ArceM
  • 22D. CamachoM
  • 10M. LliuyaM
  • 19A. MuñozM
  • 9M. de JesúsF
Substitutes
  • 11A. ArroyoF
  • 29I. BarriosG
  • 21R. BettocchiG
  • 15J. CerroM
  • 13D. CaroD
  • 18S. GálvezF
  • 7J. NunezF
  • 35G. ParedesD
Coach: C. Molins
FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
  • 21J. CabezudoG
  • 33M. LazoD
  • 23J. EscobarD
  • 3L. GonzálezD
  • 27N. CabanillasD
  • 66H. OrzánM
  • 24W. TandazoM
  • 7C. BordacaharM
  • 10N. QuagliataM
  • 11J. VidalesM
  • 9B. CuestaF
Substitutes
  • 45Matias ZegarraD
  • 77F. ZanelattoF
  • 26M. PortilloM
  • 8L. GuzmánF
  • 5A. DeneumostierD
  • 80J. D´ArrigoM
  • 16J. CáceresM
  • 12C. CácedaG
  • 90J. AlcántarD
Coach: M. Rondelli

Form going into UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

UTC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Cienciano18 October 2026

FBC Melgar

Primera División

  • W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18UTC Cajamarca3359193858-2014
3FBC Melgar3316985638+1857

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

  • 3 May 2026FBC Melgar 2–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 19 July 2025UTC Cajamarca 1–2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 8 February 2025FBC Melgar 3–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 22 October 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 12 May 2024UTC Cajamarca 2–6 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 15 August 2023FBC Melgar 1–1 UTC CajamarcaPrimera División

Leading scorers: UTC Cajamarca and FBC Melgar

UTC Cajamarca

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

FBC Melgar

GoalsAssists

  • B. Cuesta156
  • J. Vidales141

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FBC Melgar won 2–1 at UTC Cajamarca. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FBC Melgar at 51%. The goals: Bernardo Cuesta 7' for FBC Melgar, Nicolas Quagliata 68' for FBC Melgar, Luis Garro 87' for UTC Cajamarca. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.01.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FBC Melgar a 23.3% chance to finish in the top two: 31.1% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.1%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.