24 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Deportes La Serena vs Concepción Primera División prediction & result

Estadio La Portada, La Serena
Referee: Mathias Riquelme
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Deportes La Serena 3-1 Concepción.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Deportes La Serena, 29% draw, 34% Concepción — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportes La Serena at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportes La Serena99%Draw1%Concepción0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Y. Rodríguez
⚽Matías Marín
14'
Francis Mac Allister
20'
21'
⚽Jorge Henríquez
⚽Matías Marínassist: Rafael Delgado
37'
39'
Ariel Cáceres
41'
Y. Rodríguez
Matías Marín
42'
45+2'
Fausto Grillo
45'
🔁Aldrix Jaraout: Misael Dávila
Diego Rubio
57'
🔁Francis Mac Allisterout: Sebastián Díaz
65'
72'
🔁Jorge Henríquezout: Diego Acosta
72'
🔁Mario Sandovalout: Cristian Riquelme
•Lucas Alarcon
81'
⚽Jeisson Vargas (pen)
84'
🔁Yahir Salazarout: Matias Pinto
86'
🔁Diego Rubioout: Matías Pérez
86'
90+1'
🔁Ethan Espinozaout: Joaquín Montecinos
90+1'
🔁Joaquín Larriveyout: Carlos Escobar
🔁Matías Marínout: Ángelo Henríquez
90+2'
🔁G. Figueroaout: Milovan Joseph Velásquez Blaset
90+2'

Match stats — Deportes La Serena vs Concepción

66%Possession34%
17Shots3
8On target1
11Corners3
2.76xG0.18

Goals against chances

Deportes La Serena3 from 2.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Concepción1 from 0.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportes La Serena 3-4-1-2
  • 31J. TapiaG
  • 34I. RassoD
  • 5L. AlarcónD
  • 33R. DelgadoD
  • 23M. MarínM
  • 4F. Mac AllisterM
  • 8G. EscalanteM
  • 17Y. SalazarM
  • 10J. VargasM
  • 11D. RubioF
  • 2G. FigueroaF
Substitutes
  • 20Milovan VelasquezM
  • 6S. DiazM
  • 16J. GutiérrezD
  • 9Á. HenríquezF
  • 28Y. SalazarM
  • 7A. OrozF
  • 29M. PintoD
  • 3M. PérezD
  • 38I. SáezG
Coach: Felipe Gutiérrez
Concepción 4-3-3
  • 25N. ArayaG
  • 4A. CáceresD
  • 21N. RodríguezD
  • 37F. GrilloD
  • 29D. VarasD
  • 18Y. RodríguezM
  • 20J. HenríquezM
  • 16M. SandovalM
  • 19A. JaraF
  • 32J. LarriveyF
  • 30E. EspinozaF
Substitutes
  • 24M. CavalleriF
  • 3D. CarrascoD
  • 27D. AcostaF
  • 40Franco CaceresF
  • 22M. DávilaM
  • 9C. EscobarF
  • 15J. MontecinosF
  • 23C. RiquelmeD
  • 12N. VelosoG
Coach: Fernando Díaz

Form going into Deportes La Serena vs Concepción

Deportes La Serena

Primera División

  • L2-3away to Everton de Vina11 October 2026
  • L0-3Universidad de Chile13 September 2026

Concepción

Primera División

  • D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Deportes La Serena2791084042-237
8Concepción27115113030038

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportes La Serena vs Concepción

  • 19 April 2026Concepción 3–3 Deportes La SerenaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Deportes La Serena and Concepción

Deportes La Serena

GoalsAssists

  • J. Vargas87
  • F. Chamorro73

Concepción

GoalsAssists

  • J. Larrivey73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportes La Serena beat Concepción 3–1. The model had made a win for Deportes La Serena its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matías Marín 14' for Deportes La Serena, Jorge Henríquez 21' for Concepción, Matías Marín 37' for Deportes La Serena, Jeisson Vargas (penalty) 84' for Deportes La Serena. Sent off: Y. Rodríguez (Concepción) 41'. On expected goals it finished 2.76–0.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes La Serena these chances to finish in the bottom three: 1.3% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 11.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 1.3%.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportes La Serena v Concepción has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Deportes La Serena's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Deportes La Serena win37%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Concepción win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.