24 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

O'Higgins vs Cobresal Primera División prediction & result

Estadio El Teniente, Rancagua
Referee: Diego Flores Seguel
Full time1 – 1

Final score: O'Higgins 1-1 Cobresal.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% O'Higgins, 26% draw, 28% Cobresal — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

O'Higgins at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

O'Higgins5%Draw92%Cobresal3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
Stefan Pino
⚽Nicolas Garridoassist: Bastián Yáñez
40'
45'
🔁Benjamín Valenzuelaout: Leroy Janpol Morales Napa
54'
Julián Brea
65'
⚽Stefan Pinoassist: Felipe Villagran
70'
Juan Fuentes
🔁Ignacio Schorout: Bryan Rabello
73'
Alan Robledo
75'
78'
🔁Stefan Pinoout: Franco Frias
80'
🔁Juan Fuentesout: Aaron Astudillo
🔁Tomas Avilésout: Thiago Vecino
85'
🔁Leandro Diazout: Luis Pavez
85'
🔁Bastián Yáñezout: Santiago Federico Toloza
89'
🔁Walter Bouout: Joaquín Tapia
89'

Match stats — O'Higgins vs Cobresal

70%Possession30%
22Shots18
3On target7
10Corners9
1.71xG1.03

Goals against chances

O'Higgins1 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Cobresal1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

O'Higgins 4-2-3-1
  • 31O. CarabalíG
  • 3Felipe Andrés Faúndez GonzálezD
  • 22A. RobledoD
  • 21N. GarridoD
  • 20L. DíazD
  • 17T. AvilésM
  • 8F. OgazM
  • 25I. SchorM
  • 28W. BouM
  • 29B. YáñezM
  • 9A. CastilloF
Substitutes
  • 33M. BrizuelaD
  • 14M. MaturanaM
  • 6L. PavezD
  • 1J. PeñaG
  • 10B. RabelloM
  • 30J. TapiaF
  • 7S. TolozaM
  • 32T. VecinoF
  • 34B. LeivaM
Coach: Lucas Bovaglio
Cobresal 5-3-2
  • 12J. SantanderG
  • 23G. PachecoD
  • 18C. MorenoD
  • 16F. BechtholdtD
  • 20J. TiznadoD
  • 15A. CastilloD
  • 13Benjamin ValenzuelaM
  • 17J. FuentesM
  • 38F. VillagránM
  • 8S. PinoF
  • 11J. BreaF
Substitutes
  • 22A. AstudilloD
  • 10B. CarvalloM
  • 32F. FríasF
  • 14R. HuertaF
  • 6E. ValenciaM
  • 7C. YanisF
  • 39L. MoralesM
  • 44Camilo SepulvedaG
  • 43V. CamposD
Coach: G. Huerta

Form going into O'Higgins vs Cobresal

O'Higgins

Primera División

  • L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026

Cobresal

Primera División

  • D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
  • W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12O'Higgins2794143242-1031
14Cobresal2776143950-1127

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: O'Higgins vs Cobresal

  • 19 April 2026Cobresal 2–3 O'HigginsPrimera División
  • 16 August 2025O'Higgins 1–0 CobresalPrimera División
  • 16 March 2025Cobresal 0–0 O'HigginsPrimera División
  • 2 November 2024Cobresal 3–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
  • 26 May 2024O'Higgins 2–2 CobresalPrimera División
  • 25 November 2023O'Higgins 0–0 CobresalPrimera División

Leading scorers: O'Higgins and Cobresal

O'Higgins

GoalsAssists

  • A. Castillo90

Cobresal

GoalsAssists

  • S. Pino81
  • J. Brea71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

O'Higgins and Cobresal drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for O'Higgins at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolas Garrido 40' for O'Higgins, Stefan Pino 65' for Cobresal. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.03.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave O'Higgins a 22.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.4% after a win, 25.3% after a draw, 42.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.3%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Cobresal the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 66.6% going in: 42.5% after a win, 66.7% after a draw, 80.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 66.7%.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on O'Higgins v Cobresal has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is O'Higgins's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. O'Higgins win46%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Cobresal win28%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.