13 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Hafezieh Stadium, Shiraz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Fajr Sepasi 2-1 Aluminium Arak.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fajr Sepasi, 27% draw, 41% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aluminium Arak at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fajr Sepasi99%Draw1%Aluminium Arak0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁M. Rigiout: F. Arab
46'
⚽F. Arabassist: S. Fadakar
47'
55'
🔁M. Motlaghzadehout: A. Amanipour
55'
🔁B. Goudarziout: A. Sadeghi
56'
🔁A. Vatandoustout: R. Jubere
🔁M. Sharifiout: A. Moredi
74'
74'
🔁S. Sadeghiout: A. Latifi
🔁S. Tavakoliout: M. Faramarzi
75'
76'
🔁A. Ghanbariout: R. Zolfipour
76'
M. Mahdavi
⚽F. Arabassist: A. Moredi
77'
F. Arab
78'
90+4'
⚽R. Zolfipourassist: M. Mahdavi

Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

Fajr Sepasi

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026

Aluminium Arak

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Malavan8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Fajr Sepasi114521213-117
6Aluminium Arak12453129+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

  • 29 November 2025Aluminium Arak 1–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 3 April 2022Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 19 December 2021Aluminium Arak 2–0 Fajr SepasiHazfi Cup
  • 10 December 2021Aluminium Arak 1–0 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 7 January 2020Fajr Sepasi 1–2 Aluminium ArakAzadegan League

The result against the call

Fajr Sepasi beat Aluminium Arak 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aluminium Arak at 41% and given a win for Fajr Sepasi 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Arab 47' for Fajr Sepasi, F. Arab 77' for Fajr Sepasi, R. Zolfipour 90+4' for Aluminium Arak.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fajr Sepasi a 22.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.3% after a win, 21.1% after a draw, 36.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 18.5 points lower than before the match.

For Aluminium Arak the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 41.2% going in: 58.6% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 21.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.9%, 19.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fajr Sepasi v Aluminium Arak has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Aluminium Arak's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Fajr Sepasi win32%▼ −3
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Aluminium Arak win41%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.