El Gouna FC
vs
Petrojet
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Gouna FC 1-2 Petrojet.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% El Gouna FC, 28% draw, 32% Petrojet — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: El Gouna FC 1.76, Petrojet 1.44.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: El Gouna FC vs Petrojet
Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Gouna FC at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Gouna FC vs Petrojet
Line-ups
- 16Eslam RishaG
- 2Abdel Gawad TaalabD
- 5Saber El ShimiD
- 4Islam Abou SlemmaD
- 3Khaled AhmedD
- 13Omar El GazarM
- 14Nour El SayedM
- 70Ahmed GamalM
- 42M. EgbembaM
- 27Salah ZayedM
- 9Marwan MohsenF
- 1A. MasoudG
- 28M. MetaweaD
- 29T. OjoF
- 30Alaa ShaabanF
- 33David SimukondaM
- 90W. Parfait TeukeuM
- 11Ahmed ZakiF
- 34M. EssamD
- 20Ahmed BelyaD
- 1Omar SalahG
- 22Omar DiyaaD
- 25Barakat HaggagD
- 40Youssef Abdel-TawabD
- 3Islam AbdallahD
- 11Mohamed Ibrahim DodoM
- 17Adham HamedM
- 8Mohamed OsmanM
- 9Badr MoussaM
- 19Mostafa El BadryF
- 15Ahmed BahbahF
- 12A. HamawyM
- 4Mahmoud Shedid KenawiD
- 77Mohamed KhalifaG
- 13F. M. KouablanF
- 21A. LiadiF
- 30G. OkwaraF
- 27K. SekgotaM
- 2A. BahM
- 29Ahmed YassinD
Form going into El Gouna FC vs Petrojet
El Gouna FC
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
- L0-1El Mokawloon2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah28 August 2026
- D1-1Future FC23 August 2026
Petrojet
- W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zamalek SC31 August 2026
- L2-3El Geish26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Asyut Petrol22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Gouna FC vs Petrojet
- 16 September 2026El Gouna FC 1–2 PetrojetPremier League
- 28 May 2026Petrojet 1–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 6 January 2026El Gouna FC 1–3 PetrojetLeague Cup
- 17 September 2025El Gouna FC 1–1 PetrojetPremier League
- 6 April 2025Petrojet 1–0 El Gouna FCLeague Cup
- 26 December 2024Petrojet 1–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
Leading scorers: El Gouna FC and Petrojet
El Gouna FC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Petrojet
- Ahmed Bahbah2 goals1 assists
- Mostafa El Badry2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for El Gouna FC and 1.44 for Petrojet; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mostafa El-Badry 25' (Petrojet), Mohamed Ali Osman 33' (Petrojet), Saber Ashraf El Shimi 90' (El Gouna FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives El Gouna FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for El Gouna FC against 1.44 for Petrojet. El Gouna FC's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/2.04 for Petrojet.