23 August 2026, 17:30 UTC

Getafe vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result

Coliseum, Getafe
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Getafe 1-0 Racing Santander.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Getafe, 26% draw, 47% Racing Santander — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Racing Santander at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Getafe95%Draw5%Racing Santander0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Jorge Salinas
Saba Sazonov
14'
16'
Alvaro Mantilla
46'
🔁S. Martinezout: I. Martin
64'
🔁S. Canalesout: M. Gueye
64'
🔁A. Villalibreout: Y. Zabiri
66'
Manu Hernando
77'
⚽Andrés Martín (pen)
⚽E. Unal
81'
🔁A. Garciaout: S. Boselli
85'
88'
🔁Manuout: F. Gonzalez
88'
🔁G. Puertaout: J. Arana
🔁O. Mangalaout: A. Abqar
90+4'
🔁R. Terratsout: A. R. Alcantara
90+4'
🔁M. Satrianoout: B. Mayoral
90'

Match stats — Getafe vs Racing Santander

43%Possession57%
12Shots6
1On target3
8Corners6
1.22xG1

Goals against chances

Getafe1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
Racing Santander0 from 1.00 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Getafe 3-5-2
  • 13D. SoriaG
  • 4S. SazonovD
  • 2DjeneD
  • 24Z. RomeroD
  • 21A. GarciaM
  • 11R. TerratsM
  • 23O. MangalaM
  • 16FranchoM
  • 22J. MojicaM
  • 19E. UnalF
  • 10M. SatrianoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. LetacekG
  • 35D. FerrerG
  • 5A. AbqarD
  • 3DavinchiD
  • 26J. ValouD
  • 15S. BoselliD
  • 29F. Burgos
  • 28A. R. AlcantaraM
  • 30O. Lopez
Coach: Jose Bordalas Jimenez
Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. AgirrezabalaG
  • 2A. MantillaD
  • 4ManuD
  • 5P. RamonD
  • 17J. SalinasD
  • 36S. Martinez
  • 8G. PuertaM
  • 11A. MartinM
  • 20S. CanalesM
  • 10I. VicenteM
  • 12A. VillalibreF
Substitutes
  • 1S. ErikssonG
  • 16F. GonzalezD
  • 30C. SanchezD
  • 34D. DiazM
  • 6I. Sainz-MazaM
  • 23I. MartinM
  • 14M. GueyeM
  • 29A. VallecilloM
  • 33J. CastellanosM
Coach: Jose Lopez

Form going into Getafe vs Racing Santander

Getafe

  • L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026

Racing Santander

  • D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Getafe512236-35
10Racing Santander62131116-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Getafe vs Racing Santander

  • 23 August 2026Getafe 1–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 1 May 2012Getafe 1–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 21 January 2012Racing Santander 1–2 GetafeLa Liga
  • 20 February 2011Getafe 0–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 26 September 2010Racing Santander 0–1 GetafeLa Liga

Leading scorers: Getafe and Racing Santander

Getafe

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Racing Santander

  • M. Zabiri5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.