Elche vs Barcelona La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-5 Barcelona.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Elche, 25% draw, 46% Barcelona — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Barcelona
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangareD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 5F. Redondo SolariD
- 23V. ChustD
- 11G. ValeraD
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 12G. VillarM
- 8M. AguadoM
- 29A. HouaryM
- 14F. NinoF
- 43A. IturbeG
- 26M. BarzicD
- 6P. BigasD
- 19G. DianganaF
- 16M. NetoM
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 9E. PonceF
- 17JosanM
- 1J. GarciaG
- 24E. GarciaD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 18G. MartinD
- 36X. EspartD
- 22M. BernalM
- 6GaviM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 7FermínM
- 14K. AdeyemiM
- 11RaphinhaF
- 13W. SzczesnyG
- 31E. AllerG
- 23J. KoundeD
- 26A. CortesD
- 2J. CanceloD
- 5P. CubarsiD
- 33Jordi PesquerD
- 8PedriM
- 28Brian FarinasM
Form going into Elche vs Barcelona
Elche
- D1-1away to Deportivo La Coruna17 August 2026
Barcelona
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Barcelona
- 23 August 2026Elche 0–5 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 31 January 2026Elche 1–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 2 November 2025Barcelona 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 1 April 2023Elche 0–4 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 17 September 2022Barcelona 3–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 6 March 2022Elche 1–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Barcelona
Elche
- Fer Niño3 goals
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.