Sporting Gijon vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 1-0 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 47% Burgos — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 47% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
Sporting Gijon
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Burgos
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Burgos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
- 11 April 2026Burgos 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 14 September 2025Sporting Gijon 2–3 BurgosSegunda División
- 1 February 2025Sporting Gijon 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 10 November 2024Burgos 0–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 February 2024Burgos 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 September 2023Sporting Gijon 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Burgos
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Burgos
- Álex Forés2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.