7 November 2026, 23:10 UTC

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: Wilmar Hernando Montano Guevara, Colombia
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportivo Pereira.

Before kick-off the model made it 72% Atletico Nacional, 19% draw, 9% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.39, 5.26 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽F. Delgadoassist: A. Plata
J. Zapata
31'
⚽A. Morelosassist: J. Rengifo
36'
⚽A. Morelosassist: J. Rengifo
43'
45+2'
D. Ortiz
🔁A. Reyesout: W. Tesillo
46'
E. Cabrera
48'
🔁A. Morelosout: J. Rodriguez
58'
🔁E. Cabreraout: M. Uribe
58'
60'
🔁L. Morenoout: M. Aguirre
61'
🔁J. Largachaout: M. Perez
63'
⚽M. Perez (pen)
67'
F. Mosquera
🔁J. Rengifoout: M. Moreno
68'
74'
M. Aguirre
75'
🔁F. Mosqueraout: N. Rengifo
75'
🔁M. Palaciosout: T. Bovone
S. Velasquez
76'
🔁J. Zapataout: X. Rios
77'
86'
🔁A. Plataout: E. A. Moreno Gomez
87'
⚽J. A. Bermudez Correaassist: E. A. Moreno Gomez
⚽W. Tesilloassist: J. Campuzano
89'
90+2'
M. Perez
⚽Y. A. Gomez Palacio (OG)
90+4'
C. Haydar
90+5'

Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira

73%Possession27%
25Shots11
8On target5
9Corners1
1.55xG1.32

Goals against chances

Atletico Nacional4 from 1.55 xGmore than the chances were worth
Deportivo Pereira3 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional 4-4-2
  • 34Franco ArmaniG
  • 6Andrés RománD
  • 15Andres ReyesD
  • 4César HaydarD
  • 33Samuel VelásquezD
  • 22Elías CabreraM
  • 21Jorman CampuzanoM
  • 80Juan ZapataM
  • 29Andrés SarmientoM
  • 9Alfredo MorelosF
  • 19Juan Manuel RengifoF
Substitutes
  • 16William TesilloD
  • 23James RodríguezM
  • 8Matheus UribeM
  • 7Marlos MorenoF
  • 31Xavi RiosM
  • 44Edimer ZeaG
  • 27Yeicar PerlazaD
  • 20Milton CascoD
  • 13Nicolás RodríguezF
Deportivo Pereira 4-5-1
  • 1Yimy GómezG
  • 20Jordy MonroyD
  • 2Sebastián UrreaD
  • 6Danilo OrtizD
  • 25Fabio DelgadoD
  • 7Anderson PlataM
  • 5Jorge BermúdezM
  • 37Luis MorenoM
  • 8Felipe MosqueraM
  • 24Miguel PalaciosM
  • 11Jhon LargachaF
Substitutes
  • 19Miguel AguirreM
  • 18Marco PérezF
  • 23Tobias BovoneD
  • 3Nicolas RengifoF
  • 16Eber MorenoD
  • 33Samuel AtehortuaG
  • 27Juan MoralesF
  • 13Yuber QuiñonesF
  • 29Manuel Alejandro Diaz HernandezF

Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira

Atletico Nacional

Primera A

  • D1-1away to Bucaramanga3 November 2026
  • W2-0Santa Fe30 October 2026
  • W2-1Independiente Medellin25 October 2026

Deportivo Pereira

Primera A

  • L1-3Deportes Tolima3 November 2026
  • W1-0Jaguares30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Once Caldas25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Atletico Nacional1912433818+2040
17Deportivo Pereira193881628-1217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira

  • 25 April 2026Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 23 July 2025Deportivo Pereira 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 10 February 2025Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 8 November 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 18 April 2024Atletico Nacional 0–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
  • 2 November 2023Atletico Nacional 3–1 Deportivo PereiraCopa Colombia

Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Deportivo Pereira

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atletico Nacional beat Deportivo Pereira 4–3. The model had made a win for Atletico Nacional its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: F. Delgado 10' for Deportivo Pereira, A. Morelos 36' for Atletico Nacional, A. Morelos 43' for Atletico Nacional, M. Perez (penalty) 63' for Deportivo Pereira, J. A. Bermudez Correa 87' for Deportivo Pereira, W. Tesillo 89' for Atletico Nacional, Y. A. Gomez Palacio (own goal) 90+4' for Atletico Nacional. On expected goals it finished 1.55–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico Nacional a 82.0% chance to finish top of the Clausura: 89.5% after a win, 59.2% after a draw, 36.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.5%, 7.5 points higher than before the match.

For Deportivo Pereira the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.4% going in: 0.0% after a win, 13.1% after a draw, 34.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.5%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.