7 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College Primera División prediction & result

Arequipa
Referee: Daniel Ureta
Full time2 – 1

Final score: FBC Melgar 2-1 Juan Pablo II College.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% FBC Melgar, 25% draw, 22% Juan Pablo II College — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FBC Melgar at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FBC Melgar98%Draw2%Juan Pablo II College0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Juan Pablo Goicocheaassist: Hugo Ancajima
⚽Cristian Bordacaharassist: Lautaro Guzmán
12'
14'
Álvaro Rojas
Johnny Vidales
35'
37'
Jack Carhuallanqui
⚽Lautaro Guzmánassist: Matias Zegarra
48'
61'
🔁Álvaro Rojasout: Jack·Duran
61'
🔁Arón Sánchezout: Paolo Reyna
62'
🔁Mateo Rodríguezout: Janio Pósito
62'
🔁Juan Pablo Goicocheaout: Héctor Bazán
73'
Matías Kevin Almirón Llanes
75'
🔁Hugo Ancajimaout: Nilton Ramirez
🔁Cristian Bordacaharout: Franco Zanelatto
75'
🔁Lautaro Guzmánout: Marcos Portillo
75'
Matías Lazo
75'
82'
Jack·Duran

Match stats — FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College

60%Possession40%
24Shots8
6On target5
6Corners2
2.35xG0.46

Goals against chances

FBC Melgar2 from 2.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Juan Pablo II College1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
  • 21J. CabezudoG
  • 33M. LazoD
  • 23J. EscobarD
  • 3L. GonzálezD
  • 27N. CabanillasD
  • 66H. OrzánM
  • 25K. MindaM
  • 7C. BordacaharM
  • 11J. VidalesM
  • 45Matias ZegarraM
  • 8L. GuzmánF
Substitutes
  • 80J. D´ArrigoM
  • 12C. CácedaG
  • 90J. AlcántarD
  • 5A. DeneumostierD
  • 20G. GarcíaM
  • 36P. NunezM
  • 26M. PortilloM
  • 40R. YabikuF
  • 77F. ZanelattoF
Coach: M. Rondelli
Juan Pablo II College 5-3-2
  • 23M. VegaG
  • 2H. AncajimaD
  • 3A. SánchezD
  • 60P. MíguezD
  • 33M. AlmirónD
  • 31J. ToledoD
  • 18E. RamírezM
  • 14J. CarhuallanquiM
  • 37Á. RojasM
  • 97M. RodríguezF
  • 79J. GoicocheaF
Substitutes
  • 80Eren Melih DoğanM
  • 20H. BazánM
  • 28J. DuránM
  • 4S. LuzquinosM
  • 89J. PósitoF
  • 12I. QuispeG
  • 15N. RamírezM
  • 19P. ReynaD
  • 88J. TorresM
Coach: J. Araujo

Form going into FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College

FBC Melgar

Primera División

  • L0-2away to Sport Huancayo2 November 2026
  • D1-1Comerciantes Unidos30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to UTC Cajamarca23 October 2026
  • W4-2Deportivo Garcilaso17 October 2026

Juan Pablo II College

Primera División

  • L0-1away to Alianza Atletico31 October 2026
  • W2-0Sport Huancayo27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Universitario25 October 2026
  • W2-0Sport Boys17 October 2026

What these results say

  • FBC Melgar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FBC Melgar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for FBC Melgar.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Juan Pablo II College had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FBC Melgar3316985638+1857
12Juan Pablo II College33118144859-1141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College

  • 22 May 2026Juan Pablo II College 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
  • 5 August 2025FBC Melgar 1–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
  • 2 July 2025Juan Pablo II College 1–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División

Leading scorers: FBC Melgar and Juan Pablo II College

FBC Melgar

GoalsAssists

  • B. Cuesta156
  • J. Vidales141

Juan Pablo II College

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FBC Melgar beat Juan Pablo II College 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FBC Melgar at 53%. The goals: Juan Pablo Goicochea 9' for Juan Pablo II College, Cristian Bordacahar 12' for FBC Melgar, Lautaro Guzmán 48' for FBC Melgar. Sent off: Jack·Duran (Juan Pablo II College) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.35–0.46.

How the call on FBC Melgar v Juan Pablo II College has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is FBC Melgar's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. FBC Melgar win53%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Juan Pablo II College win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.