7 November 2026, 21:05 UTC

Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Palogrande, Manizales
Referee: Jhon Alexander Ospina Londono, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Once Caldas 1-0 Águilas Doradas.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Once Caldas, 29% draw, 25% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Once Caldas at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Once Caldas4%Draw93%Águilas Doradas3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Alberto Higgins
49'
John García
⚽Pipe Gómez (pen)
51'
58'
Juan Camilo Roa
Pipe Gómez
63'
🔁Juan Pablo Nietoout: Dayro Moreno
65'
74'
🔁Matías Ramírezout: Eduar Arízalas
74'
🔁Juan Camilo Roaout: Juan Ávalo
🔁Pipe Gómezout: Jorman Beltran
79'
79'
🔁Anthony Vásquezout: Andrés Carreño
80'
🔁Andrés Ricaurteout: Jhon Meléndez
🔁Helieyker Guzmanout: Edwin Torres
82'
⚽Dayro Moreno
90+4'
Felipe Parra
90+8'
Dayro Moreno
90+5'
90+8'
Andrés Mosquera

Match stats — Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas

52%Possession48%
21Shots9
7On target1
8Corners6
2.09xG0.75

Goals against chances

Once Caldas1 from 2.09 xGless than the chances were worth
Águilas Doradas0 from 0.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Once Caldas
  • 99Felipe ParraG
  • 16Juan CastañoD
  • 2Jorge CardonaD
  • 30Daniel LondoñoD
  • 33Juan PatiñoD
  • 5Juan Pablo NietoM
  • 23Andres ColoradoM
  • 21Helieyker GuzmanM
  • 42Jader QuinonesM
  • 9Pipe GómezM
  • 14Jefry ZapataF
Substitutes
  • 17Dayro MorenoF
  • 31Jorman BeltranM
  • 29Edwin TorresF
  • 12Jesús CamargoG
  • 4Efraín NavarroD
  • 18Jeider RiquettD
  • 3Andres CorreaD
  • 19Tomas GarcíaM
  • 36Rafael AcunaM
Coach: Carlos Valencia
Águilas Doradas
  • 1Jorge SotoG
  • 19Frank LozanoD
  • 4Andrés MosqueraD
  • 2John GarcíaD
  • 3John OntanedaD
  • 16Matías RamírezM
  • 25Juan Camilo RoaM
  • 6Iván RojasM
  • 32Javier MenaM
  • 9Anthony VásquezF
  • 8Andrés RicaurteF
Substitutes
  • 24Juan ÁvaloM
  • 7Eduar ArízalasF
  • 18Andrés CarreñoF
  • 13Jhon MeléndezD
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 28Sebastián RodríguezD
  • 30Nicolás LaraD
  • 20Alberto HigginsD
Coach: David Nino Casteblanco Juan

Form going into Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas

Once Caldas

Primera A

  • W1-0Alianza Valledupar28 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Pereira25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Millonarios21 October 2026

Águilas Doradas

Primera A

  • W1-0Fortaleza FC2 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Cucuta27 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Junior24 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Once Caldas197752319+428
11Águilas Doradas196762222025

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas

  • 26 April 2026Águilas Doradas 2–2 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 9 August 2025Once Caldas 1–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 22 February 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 20 July 2024Once Caldas 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 26 January 2024Águilas Doradas 1–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 5 August 2023Águilas Doradas 2–1 Once CaldasPrimera A

Leading scorers: Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas

Once Caldas

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moreno171
  • J. Zapata133

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Once Caldas beat Águilas Doradas 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Once Caldas at 46%. The goal: Dayro Moreno 90+4' for Once Caldas. On expected goals it finished 2.09–0.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Once Caldas a 29.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 51.7% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.7%, 22.4 points higher than before the match.

For Águilas Doradas the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 51.6% going in: 92.6% after a win, 63.1% after a draw, 28.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.2%, 23.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Once Caldas v Águilas Doradas has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Once Caldas's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Once Caldas win46%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Águilas Doradas win25%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.