7 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
Referee: Kevin Ortega
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Cajamarca 2-0 Alianza Atletico.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% FC Cajamarca, 24% draw, 43% Alianza Atletico — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Atletico at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cajamarca99%Draw1%Alianza Atletico0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Hairo Eduardo·Timana Alvarezassist: Brandon Palacios
43'
45'
🔁Anthony Gordilloout: Jesus Mendieta
45'
🔁Cristian Penillaout: Guillermo Larios
45'
🔁Hernan Lupuout: Jorge del Castillo
55'
Ariel Muñoz
64'
🔁Juan Delgadoout: Jimmy Perez
🔁P. Cejasout: Jonathan Betancourt
65'
🔁Brandon Palaciosout: José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón
65'
•José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez
69'
79'
🔁Ariel Muñozout: Jairo Molina
80'
Germán Díaz
Arthur Alexander Gutiérrez Inga
83'
🔁José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónezout: S. Enciso
84'
⚽José Mauricio Arrasco Calderónassist: S. Enciso
86'
🔁Jefferson Orejuelaout: Hairo Camacho
88'

Match stats — FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

41%Possession59%
21Shots12
9On target1
8Corners7
3.13xG0.56

Goals against chances

FC Cajamarca2 from 3.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Alianza Atletico0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 3J. MedinaG
  • 21J. VegaD
  • 95Y. VílchezD
  • 26H. TimanáD
  • 65A. GutiérrezD
  • 69C. CorreaM
  • 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
  • 20C. MezaM
  • 77J. LugoM
  • 17B. PalaciosM
  • 99P. CejasF
Substitutes
  • 11M. ArrascoM
  • 12S. Aspajo CohenG
  • 88H. CamachoM
  • 27J. BetancourtM
  • 31S. EncisoM
  • 80Valentino Ybrahin Sandoval SánchezF
  • 4J. SotoD
  • 32P. AlegriaF
  • 66R. SuarezD
Coach: Santiago Acasiete
Alianza Atletico 4-2-3-1
  • 95D. PrietoG
  • 21E. PerlecheD
  • 2R. SuarezD
  • 6J. LujánD
  • 24A. GordilloD
  • 15H. LupúM
  • 10Germán DíazM
  • 23A. MuñozM
  • 37J. DelgadoM
  • 17C. PenillaM
  • 27J. IngrattiF
Substitutes
  • 22J. del CastilloM
  • 16S. FernándezM
  • 25W. GuzmánD
  • 11G. LariosF
  • 19J. MendietaD
  • 29J. MolinaF
  • 20Jimmy PérezM
  • 31S. RivadeneyraG
  • 9V. RobaldoF
Coach: F. Urciuoli

Form going into FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

FC Cajamarca

Primera División

  • L0-5away to Sporting Cristal2 November 2026
  • L1-3UTC Cajamarca28 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Sport Boys25 October 2026
  • L0-1UCV Moquegua18 October 2026

Alianza Atletico

Primera División

  • W1-0Juan Pablo II College31 October 2026
  • W3-2Deportivo Garcilaso28 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Sport Huancayo24 October 2026
  • L1-4Universitario18 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Cajamarca did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • FC Cajamarca conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for FC Cajamarca had three goals or more.
  • Alianza Atletico scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Alianza Atletico conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Alianza Atletico had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Cajamarca3387184665-1929
9Alianza Atletico33147124948+149

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico

  • 24 May 2026Alianza Atletico 1–1 FC CajamarcaPrimera División

Leading scorers: FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atletico

FC Cajamarca

GoalsAssists

  • M. Arrasco85
  • B. Palacios84

Alianza Atletico

GoalsAssists

  • C. Penilla95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Cajamarca beat Alianza Atletico 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Alianza Atletico at 43% and given a win for FC Cajamarca 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Hairo Eduardo·Timana Alvarez 43' for FC Cajamarca, José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón 86' for FC Cajamarca. On expected goals it finished 3.13–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cajamarca a 69.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 32.0% after a win, 68.5% after a draw, 93.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.0%, 37.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Cajamarca v Alianza Atletico has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 37% / 25% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 33% / 24% / 43%: the biggest move is Alianza Atletico's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. FC Cajamarca win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Alianza Atletico win43%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.