7 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: Jose Bautista, Colombia
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Fortaleza FC 0-3 Independiente Medellin.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Fortaleza FC, 28% draw, 34% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fortaleza FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Yony Gonzalezassist: D. Catano
20'
D. Moreno
31'
J. Medina
33'
H. Loboa
•S. Navarro
45+2'
46'
🔁H. Loboaout: B. Perlaza
56'
⚽D. Ramirez (OG)
🔁S. Vivasout: T. Wilke
60'
🔁M. Vazquezout: J. Solis
60'
66'
🔁Yony Gonzalezout: J. Martinez
66'
🔁D. Catanoout: K. Klinger
69'
F. Fabra
🔁S. Cueroout: A. Larrans
72'
🔁S. Navarroout: J. Velasquez
72'
🔁E. Cabezasout: I. Montano
72'
74'
🔁J. Medinaout: L. Berrio
81'
🔁J. Montanoout: N. Erazo
88'
⚽E. Mena Pereaassist: J. Martinez

Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin

62%Possession38%
9Shots12
2On target4
7Corners3
0.4xG0.84

Goals against chances

Fortaleza FC0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth
Independiente Medellin3 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fortaleza FC 4-4-2
  • 1Williams BarlasinaG
  • 16Joan CajaresD
  • 6Yesid DíazD
  • 3David RamírezD
  • 15Santiago CueroD
  • 4Edwin CabezasM
  • 28Santiago VivasM
  • 14Leonardo PicoM
  • 8Sebastián NavarroM
  • 32Mariano VázquezF
  • 19Franco PulicastroF
Substitutes
  • 30Jhon SolisM
  • 29Teun WilkeF
  • 7Italo Montaño CortesF
  • 33Armando LarransM
  • 10Jhon VelásquezM
  • 22Michael BarragánG
  • 2Andres CopeteM
  • 13Brandon MejíaM
  • 31Juan AlbornozM
Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1
  • 25Eder ChauxG
  • 26Esneyder MenaD
  • 39Luis EscorciaD
  • 19Alfonso SimarraD
  • 18Frank FabraD
  • 16Halam LoboaM
  • 6Didier MorenoM
  • 11Yony GonzálezM
  • 10Daniel CatañoM
  • 20John Edwin MontañoM
  • 9Jeison MedinaF
Substitutes
  • 14Baldomero PerlazaM
  • 34Keiner KlingerM
  • 15Jackson MartínezF
  • 7Léider BerríoM
  • 24Nivaldo ErazoM
  • 1Salvador IchazoG
  • 5Joaquin VarelaD
  • 13Jhan MenaD
  • 32Carlos LucumiF

Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin

Fortaleza FC

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Águilas Doradas2 November 2026
  • L1-2away to America de Cali29 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Cali25 October 2026

Independiente Medellin

Primera A

  • W2-1Alianza Valledupar1 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Internacional de Bogota29 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Atletico Nacional25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Fortaleza FC191991729-1212
6Independiente Medellin1910272925+432

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin

  • 11 May 2026Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
  • 26 April 2026Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 17 October 2025Independiente Medellin 3–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
  • 4 September 2025Independiente Medellin 2–1 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
  • 27 August 2025Fortaleza FC 0–0 Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
  • 27 April 2025Fortaleza FC 0–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A

The result against the call

Independiente Medellin won 3–0 at Fortaleza FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Fortaleza FC at 38% and given a win for Independiente Medellin 34%. The goals: Yony Gonzalez 16' for Independiente Medellin, D. Ramirez (own goal) 56' for Independiente Medellin, E. Mena Perea 88' for Independiente Medellin. On expected goals it finished 0.40–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortaleza FC a 94.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 85.9% after a win, 98.6% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 6 points higher than before the match.

For Independiente Medellin the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 62.9% going in: 94.7% after a win, 58.4% after a draw, 37.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.7%, 31.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fortaleza FC v Independiente Medellin has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Fortaleza FC's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Fortaleza FC win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Independiente Medellin win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.